Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 25 centers on modest model spread among ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office runs, with ensemble means clustering near 12–13 °C. North Sea marine air advection, possible nocturnal cloud cover, and weak pressure gradients are limiting radiative cooling and keeping the range tight. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows of 13–15 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below average. Traders price the closest bins highest because resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official KNMI stations, where small shifts in timing or boundary-layer mixing can swing the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. Fresh model updates expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Ámsterdam el 25 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Ámsterdam el 25 de agosto?
9°C or below 79%
19°C o más 77%
12°C 49%
13°C 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 ago 2026
9°C or below
79%
10°C
14%
11°C
40%
12°C
49%
13°C
49%
14°C
27%
15°C
40%
16°C
9%
17°C
32%
18°C
3%
19°C o más
77%
9°C or below 79%
19°C o más 77%
12°C 49%
13°C 49%
NUEVO
NUEVO
25 ago 2026
9°C or below
$5 Vol.
79%
10°C
$5 Vol.
14%
11°C
$0 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C
$0 Vol.
9%
17°C
$0 Vol.
32%
18°C
$5 Vol.
3%
19°C o más
$5 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 25 centers on modest model spread among ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office runs, with ensemble means clustering near 12–13 °C. North Sea marine air advection, possible nocturnal cloud cover, and weak pressure gradients are limiting radiative cooling and keeping the range tight. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows of 13–15 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below average. Traders price the closest bins highest because resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official KNMI stations, where small shifts in timing or boundary-layer mixing can swing the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. Fresh model updates expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$20Fecha de finalización
25 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 25 centers on modest model spread among ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office runs, with ensemble means clustering near 12–13 °C. North Sea marine air advection, possible nocturnal cloud cover, and weak pressure gradients are limiting radiative cooling and keeping the range tight. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows of 13–15 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below average. Traders price the closest bins highest because resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official KNMI stations, where small shifts in timing or boundary-layer mixing can swing the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. Fresh model updates expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$20Fecha de finalización
25 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 23, 2026, 12:31 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast uncertainty for Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 25 centers on modest model spread among ECMWF, GFS, and UK Met Office runs, with ensemble means clustering near 12–13 °C. North Sea marine air advection, possible nocturnal cloud cover, and weak pressure gradients are limiting radiative cooling and keeping the range tight. Historical late-August climatology shows typical lows of 13–15 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below average. Traders price the closest bins highest because resolution hinges on precise overnight readings from official KNMI stations, where small shifts in timing or boundary-layer mixing can swing the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. Fresh model updates expected in the next 24 hours will likely tighten or shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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