Recent observational data and model analyses indicate that July 2026 global mean surface temperatures settled near the 1.20–1.24 °C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, consistent with the market's dominant 94% implied probability. Lingering effects from prior El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend have sustained elevated monthly values, though 2026 has shown modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, as confirmed in June reports from Copernicus (1.39 °C) and Berkeley Earth. Traders appear to have priced in preliminary reanalysis and in-situ measurements pointing to this narrow range. Final agency releases could shift outcomes if revised data or additional Arctic or ocean observations push the anomaly outside 1.20–1.24 °C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoJulio 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Julio 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,20–1,24ºC 94%
1,15–1,19ºC 2.8%
>1,29ºC 1.4%
<1,10ºC <1%
$60,062 Vol.
$60,062 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
3%
1,20–1,24ºC
94%
1,25–1,29 ºC
<1%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,20–1,24ºC 94%
1,15–1,19ºC 2.8%
>1,29ºC 1.4%
<1,10ºC <1%
$60,062 Vol.
$60,062 Vol.
1 ago 2026
<1,10ºC
$8,525 Vol.
1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$5,404 Vol.
1%
1,15–1,19ºC
$12,594 Vol.
3%
1,20–1,24ºC
$13,554 Vol.
94%
1,25–1,29 ºC
$15,253 Vol.
<1%
>1,29ºC
$4,732 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data and model analyses indicate that July 2026 global mean surface temperatures settled near the 1.20–1.24 °C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, consistent with the market's dominant 94% implied probability. Lingering effects from prior El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend have sustained elevated monthly values, though 2026 has shown modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, as confirmed in June reports from Copernicus (1.39 °C) and Berkeley Earth. Traders appear to have priced in preliminary reanalysis and in-situ measurements pointing to this narrow range. Final agency releases could shift outcomes if revised data or additional Arctic or ocean observations push the anomaly outside 1.20–1.24 °C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado abierto: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volumen
$60,062Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data and model analyses indicate that July 2026 global mean surface temperatures settled near the 1.20–1.24 °C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, consistent with the market's dominant 94% implied probability. Lingering effects from prior El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend have sustained elevated monthly values, though 2026 has shown modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, as confirmed in June reports from Copernicus (1.39 °C) and Berkeley Earth. Traders appear to have priced in preliminary reanalysis and in-situ measurements pointing to this narrow range. Final agency releases could shift outcomes if revised data or additional Arctic or ocean observations push the anomaly outside 1.20–1.24 °C.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$60,062Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent observational data and model analyses indicate that July 2026 global mean surface temperatures settled near the 1.20–1.24 °C anomaly above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline, consistent with the market's dominant 94% implied probability. Lingering effects from prior El Niño conditions combined with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend have sustained elevated monthly values, though 2026 has shown modest cooling relative to 2024–2025 peaks, as confirmed in June reports from Copernicus (1.39 °C) and Berkeley Earth. Traders appear to have priced in preliminary reanalysis and in-situ measurements pointing to this narrow range. Final agency releases could shift outcomes if revised data or additional Arctic or ocean observations push the anomaly outside 1.20–1.24 °C.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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