**Trader consensus reflects the low likelihood of a conviction and sentencing occurring before the end of 2026.** Comey faces an active federal indictment in the Eastern District of North Carolina on charges of threatening the president and transmitting a threat, stemming from a May 2025 Instagram post depicting seashells arranged as “86 47.” Arraignment is set for September 30, 2026, with trial scheduled for October 21. Defense motions seek dismissal on First Amendment grounds, arguing the post does not constitute a true threat, while prosecutors maintain a jury should decide its meaning. An earlier 2025 indictment on false-statement and obstruction charges was dismissed in November 2025 over the improper appointment of the interim U.S. attorney; the DOJ’s appeal is scheduled for argument on September 15, 2026, before the Fourth Circuit. Even if revived or if the North Carolina case proceeds to conviction, sentencing would face substantial delays from appeals, procedural motions, and the “true threat” legal standard. Historical patterns for comparable cases show extended timelines before any prison term, and no other active proceedings point to imminent incarceration. Late developments such as a rapid conviction, denial of all defense motions, or successful revival of the dismissed charges could theoretically shift probabilities, though these remain low-probability paths within the calendar year.