Recent polling following the August 25 launch of Amcha Yisrael by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter shows the new right-wing party securing between four and eight Knesset seats across surveys, with results fluctuating due to small sample sizes and competition for right-wing voters from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. This volatility, combined with the 3.25% electoral threshold and the October 27, 2026 election date, has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 4-6 and 7-9 seat ranges. Key variables that could shift outcomes include additional polls, potential joint-list negotiations, shifts in Likud or ultra-Orthodox support, and Winter's campaign positioning on security and coalition-building.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado7-9 42%
4-6 42%
10+ 38%
<4 35%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
<4
35%
4-6
42%
7-9
42%
10+
38%
7-9 42%
4-6 42%
10+ 38%
<4 35%
NUEVO
NUEVO
30 nov 2026
<4
$0 Vol.
35%
4-6
$0 Vol.
42%
7-9
$0 Vol.
42%
10+
$4 Vol.
38%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling following the August 25 launch of Amcha Yisrael by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter shows the new right-wing party securing between four and eight Knesset seats across surveys, with results fluctuating due to small sample sizes and competition for right-wing voters from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. This volatility, combined with the 3.25% electoral threshold and the October 27, 2026 election date, has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 4-6 and 7-9 seat ranges. Key variables that could shift outcomes include additional polls, potential joint-list negotiations, shifts in Likud or ultra-Orthodox support, and Winter's campaign positioning on security and coalition-building.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Mercado abierto: Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Volumen
$4Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling following the August 25 launch of Amcha Yisrael by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter shows the new right-wing party securing between four and eight Knesset seats across surveys, with results fluctuating due to small sample sizes and competition for right-wing voters from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. This volatility, combined with the 3.25% electoral threshold and the October 27, 2026 election date, has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 4-6 and 7-9 seat ranges. Key variables that could shift outcomes include additional polls, potential joint-list negotiations, shifts in Likud or ultra-Orthodox support, and Winter's campaign positioning on security and coalition-building.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Amcha Yisrael in this election.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Volumen
$4Fecha de finalización
27 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 4, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling following the August 25 launch of Amcha Yisrael by retired Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter shows the new right-wing party securing between four and eight Knesset seats across surveys, with results fluctuating due to small sample sizes and competition for right-wing voters from Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. This volatility, combined with the 3.25% electoral threshold and the October 27, 2026 election date, has kept trader probabilities tightly clustered around the 4-6 and 7-9 seat ranges. Key variables that could shift outcomes include additional polls, potential joint-list negotiations, shifts in Likud or ultra-Orthodox support, and Winter's campaign positioning on security and coalition-building.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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