The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent Safe/Solid Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee. Incumbent Jim Baird secured renomination in the May primary with over 60% of the vote despite challengers, positioning him for the November general against Democrat Drew Cox. This incumbency advantage and limited recent developments have reinforced market pricing near 92.5% for the Republican outcome. Factors that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen national political wave, candidate health developments, or late scandals, though the district's structural makeup has historically limited such volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes IN-04
$10,272 Vol.
$10,272 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
7%
$10,272 Vol.
$10,272 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$7,932 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$2,340 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent Safe/Solid Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee. Incumbent Jim Baird secured renomination in the May primary with over 60% of the vote despite challengers, positioning him for the November general against Democrat Drew Cox. This incumbency advantage and limited recent developments have reinforced market pricing near 92.5% for the Republican outcome. Factors that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen national political wave, candidate health developments, or late scandals, though the district's structural makeup has historically limited such volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$10,272Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent Safe/Solid Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee. Incumbent Jim Baird secured renomination in the May primary with over 60% of the vote despite challengers, positioning him for the November general against Democrat Drew Cox. This incumbency advantage and limited recent developments have reinforced market pricing near 92.5% for the Republican outcome. Factors that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen national political wave, candidate health developments, or late scandals, though the district's structural makeup has historically limited such volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$10,272Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in its R+15 partisan voting index and consistent Safe/Solid Republican ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the GOP nominee. Incumbent Jim Baird secured renomination in the May primary with over 60% of the vote despite challengers, positioning him for the November general against Democrat Drew Cox. This incumbency advantage and limited recent developments have reinforced market pricing near 92.5% for the Republican outcome. Factors that could still shift probabilities include an unforeseen national political wave, candidate health developments, or late scandals, though the district's structural makeup has historically limited such volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes