Idaho’s strong Republican tilt, reinforced by Donald Trump’s 36-point 2024 margin and consistent state-level voting patterns, anchors trader consensus behind incumbent Senator Jim Risch at 95.5% implied probability. Risch secured the GOP nomination with 67% in the May primary against limited opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after independent Todd Achilles entered with party backing, leaving Risch facing a fragmented field that includes Achilles and minor independents. Recent polls show Risch leading by double digits in most surveys, though one August poll narrowed the gap in a head-to-head matchup. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter dynamics before November, but structural fundamentals limit those risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones al Senado de Idaho
Ganador de las elecciones al Senado de Idaho
$32,062 Vol.
$32,062 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republicano
96%
Demócrata
4%
$32,062 Vol.
$32,062 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republicano
$17,781 Vol.
96%
Demócrata
$14,281 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho’s strong Republican tilt, reinforced by Donald Trump’s 36-point 2024 margin and consistent state-level voting patterns, anchors trader consensus behind incumbent Senator Jim Risch at 95.5% implied probability. Risch secured the GOP nomination with 67% in the May primary against limited opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after independent Todd Achilles entered with party backing, leaving Risch facing a fragmented field that includes Achilles and minor independents. Recent polls show Risch leading by double digits in most surveys, though one August poll narrowed the gap in a head-to-head matchup. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter dynamics before November, but structural fundamentals limit those risks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volumen
$32,062Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Idaho’s strong Republican tilt, reinforced by Donald Trump’s 36-point 2024 margin and consistent state-level voting patterns, anchors trader consensus behind incumbent Senator Jim Risch at 95.5% implied probability. Risch secured the GOP nomination with 67% in the May primary against limited opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after independent Todd Achilles entered with party backing, leaving Risch facing a fragmented field that includes Achilles and minor independents. Recent polls show Risch leading by double digits in most surveys, though one August poll narrowed the gap in a head-to-head matchup. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter dynamics before November, but structural fundamentals limit those risks.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$32,062Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Idaho’s strong Republican tilt, reinforced by Donald Trump’s 36-point 2024 margin and consistent state-level voting patterns, anchors trader consensus behind incumbent Senator Jim Risch at 95.5% implied probability. Risch secured the GOP nomination with 67% in the May primary against limited opposition and benefits from incumbency advantages in a midterm cycle. The Democratic nominee withdrew in July after independent Todd Achilles entered with party backing, leaving Risch facing a fragmented field that includes Achilles and minor independents. Recent polls show Risch leading by double digits in most surveys, though one August poll narrowed the gap in a head-to-head matchup. A major scandal, health event, or unexpected national shift could still alter dynamics before November, but structural fundamentals limit those risks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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