Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority entering the 2026 cycle, requiring Democrats to secure a net gain of four seats for control amid a map that includes multiple Republican-held competitive races. Nate Silver’s FLIPR model, launched in mid-August, rates the chamber a near-tossup because the current generic congressional ballot lead for Democrats of roughly D+6 to D+8 would need to exceed that threshold for Democrats to overcome structural disadvantages. Recent Cook Political Report adjustments moved Texas and Iowa toward toss-up status, while primaries and special elections continue to shape candidate fields ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with outcomes sensitive to further polling shifts or national environment changes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoNUEVO
3 nov 2026
August 31
23%
September 15
47%
September 30
49%
October 31
47%
$0.00 Vol.
August 31
$0 Vol.
23%
September 15
$0 Vol.
47%
September 30
$0 Vol.
49%
October 31
$0 Vol.
47%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority entering the 2026 cycle, requiring Democrats to secure a net gain of four seats for control amid a map that includes multiple Republican-held competitive races. Nate Silver’s FLIPR model, launched in mid-August, rates the chamber a near-tossup because the current generic congressional ballot lead for Democrats of roughly D+6 to D+8 would need to exceed that threshold for Democrats to overcome structural disadvantages. Recent Cook Political Report adjustments moved Texas and Iowa toward toss-up status, while primaries and special elections continue to shape candidate fields ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with outcomes sensitive to further polling shifts or national environment changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority entering the 2026 cycle, requiring Democrats to secure a net gain of four seats for control amid a map that includes multiple Republican-held competitive races. Nate Silver’s FLIPR model, launched in mid-August, rates the chamber a near-tossup because the current generic congressional ballot lead for Democrats of roughly D+6 to D+8 would need to exceed that threshold for Democrats to overcome structural disadvantages. Recent Cook Political Report adjustments moved Texas and Iowa toward toss-up status, while primaries and special elections continue to shape candidate fields ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with outcomes sensitive to further polling shifts or national environment changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point by the specified date at 11:59PM ET, the Silver Bulletin Flipr Forecast of the 2026 Senate election gives Republicans a greater than 50% chance to control the United States Senate. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A 50.0% chance shall not be sufficient to resolve this market.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2026 Flipr Forecast of Senate control, using the "Deluxe" version of the forecast, that can be found at https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model.
Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the forecast will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If either Silver Bulletin or Flipr rebrand or otherwise change names or urls, this market will resolve based on the clearly-identified successor, should one exist. If Silver Bulletin's "Deluxe" Flipr model becomes permanently unavailable, the "Classic" model will be used.
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 21, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Republicans hold a narrow Senate majority entering the 2026 cycle, requiring Democrats to secure a net gain of four seats for control amid a map that includes multiple Republican-held competitive races. Nate Silver’s FLIPR model, launched in mid-August, rates the chamber a near-tossup because the current generic congressional ballot lead for Democrats of roughly D+6 to D+8 would need to exceed that threshold for Democrats to overcome structural disadvantages. Recent Cook Political Report adjustments moved Texas and Iowa toward toss-up status, while primaries and special elections continue to shape candidate fields ahead of the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflects this balance, with outcomes sensitive to further polling shifts or national environment changes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿El total de votos emitidos en las elecciones de medio término de 2026 para senador de Rhode Island estará entre 250,000 y 300,000?
42%
Sí
¿El total de votos emitidos en la elección intermedia de 2026 para senador de New Hampshire estará entre 550,000 y 600,000?
38%
Sí
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?
28%
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes