Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMinnesota 18.6%
Georgia 17.0%
Ohio 14.8%
Texas 11.8%
$16,241 Vol.
$16,241 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Minnesota
19%
Georgia
17%
Ohio
15%
Texas
12%
Alaska
12%
Florida
10%
Nevada
9%
Iowa
7%
Kansas
7%
Oregon
5%
Vermont
4%
Michigan
4%
Colorado
3%
New Hampshire
3%
New Mexico
3%
Arizona
2%
Wisconsin
2%
Maine
1%
Minnesota 18.6%
Georgia 17.0%
Ohio 14.8%
Texas 11.8%
$16,241 Vol.
$16,241 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Minnesota
$274 Vol.
19%
Georgia
$815 Vol.
17%
Ohio
$803 Vol.
15%
Texas
$1,703 Vol.
12%
Alaska
$269 Vol.
12%
Florida
$335 Vol.
10%
Nevada
$2,939 Vol.
9%
Iowa
$1,797 Vol.
7%
Kansas
$3,184 Vol.
7%
Oregon
$336 Vol.
5%
Vermont
$186 Vol.
4%
Michigan
$339 Vol.
4%
Colorado
$253 Vol.
3%
New Hampshire
$539 Vol.
3%
New Mexico
$308 Vol.
3%
Arizona
$297 Vol.
2%
Wisconsin
$1,498 Vol.
2%
Maine
$365 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volumen
$16,241Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the US gubernatorial race which has the smallest margin of victory.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
If two state margins of victory are identical, this market will resolve to the tied state whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will consider the results of all listed gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to be held in November, 2026, by October 31, 2026, including the results of runoff elections held after November, 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$16,241Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Open seats in states such as Georgia, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with term-limited incumbents and competitive nominations, drive trader expectations for the narrowest 2026 gubernatorial margins. Recent primary results and polling averages show projected gaps under 5 points in these contests, reflecting swing-state dynamics, shifting voter turnout patterns, and candidate matchups without the typical incumbent buffer. Ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report and Inside Elections classify several as toss-ups or leans, while broader midterm factors including economic conditions and national partisan trends sustain uncertainty. Late-cycle polling shifts, turnout surges in battleground areas, or unexpected candidate withdrawals could widen gaps and reorder the market's implied probabilities ahead of November 3.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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