Michigan stands out among the toss-up Senate contests as Democrats’ strongest opportunity because it is an open seat in a true swing state with an even partisan lean, where recent polling averages show the Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running essentially even or narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers after a contentious August primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the race a toss-up, reflecting the state’s battleground status and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Harris carried in 2024, though the Democratic nominee change to Troy Jackson has kept the contest tight. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s proven appeal and ranked-choice voting dynamics against Dan Sullivan. Texas and Ohio have moved into toss-up territory per recent adjustments by nonpartisan raters, driven by polling shifts and the broader midterm environment, while Iowa trails as a more Republican-leaning open seat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La mejor carrera de los demócratas en el Senado?
¿La mejor carrera de los demócratas en el Senado?
Michigan 53%
Alaska 20%
Maine 16%
Texas 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Michigan
53%
Alaska
20%
Maine
15%
Texas
17%
Ohio
4%
Iowa
3%
Michigan 53%
Alaska 20%
Maine 16%
Texas 9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Michigan
$2,567 Vol.
53%
Alaska
$201 Vol.
20%
Maine
$195 Vol.
15%
Texas
$109 Vol.
17%
Ohio
$273 Vol.
4%
Iowa
$109 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among the toss-up Senate contests as Democrats’ strongest opportunity because it is an open seat in a true swing state with an even partisan lean, where recent polling averages show the Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running essentially even or narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers after a contentious August primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the race a toss-up, reflecting the state’s battleground status and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Harris carried in 2024, though the Democratic nominee change to Troy Jackson has kept the contest tight. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s proven appeal and ranked-choice voting dynamics against Dan Sullivan. Texas and Ohio have moved into toss-up territory per recent adjustments by nonpartisan raters, driven by polling shifts and the broader midterm environment, while Iowa trails as a more Republican-leaning open seat.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volumen
$3,455Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out among the toss-up Senate contests as Democrats’ strongest opportunity because it is an open seat in a true swing state with an even partisan lean, where recent polling averages show the Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running essentially even or narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers after a contentious August primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the race a toss-up, reflecting the state’s battleground status and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Harris carried in 2024, though the Democratic nominee change to Troy Jackson has kept the contest tight. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s proven appeal and ranked-choice voting dynamics against Dan Sullivan. Texas and Ohio have moved into toss-up territory per recent adjustments by nonpartisan raters, driven by polling shifts and the broader midterm environment, while Iowa trails as a more Republican-leaning open seat.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,455Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out among the toss-up Senate contests as Democrats’ strongest opportunity because it is an open seat in a true swing state with an even partisan lean, where recent polling averages show the Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed running essentially even or narrowly ahead of Republican Mike Rogers after a contentious August primary. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the race a toss-up, reflecting the state’s battleground status and the absence of an incumbent advantage. Maine remains competitive due to Susan Collins’s moderate profile in a state Harris carried in 2024, though the Democratic nominee change to Troy Jackson has kept the contest tight. Alaska benefits from Mary Peltola’s proven appeal and ranked-choice voting dynamics against Dan Sullivan. Texas and Ohio have moved into toss-up territory per recent adjustments by nonpartisan raters, driven by polling shifts and the broader midterm environment, while Iowa trails as a more Republican-leaning open seat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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