Several competitive 2026 Senate contests stand out due to an unusually high number of retirements—eleven announced so far—combined with open seats in states featuring mixed partisan leans. Recent updates from forecasters have shifted North Carolina to lean Democratic and placed Alaska and Ohio in toss-up territory, reflecting candidate recruitment, early fundraising, and primary outcomes. Special elections in Florida and Ohio, triggered by prior resignations, add further variables. Upcoming August primaries in states such as Michigan will clarify nominees and could alter polling margins ahead of the November 3 general election. These factors shape trader assessments of races likely to finish within narrow margins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,139 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Ohio (Especial)
76%
Michigan
75%
Iowa
74%
Alaska
71%
Texas
69%
Maine
65%
New Hampshire
47%
Nebraska
45%
Georgia
36%
Florida (Especial)
29%
Carolina del Norte
28%
Minnesota
26%
Nuevo México
11%
Montana
8%
Virginia
5%
Colorado
3%
$21,139 Vol.
Ohio (Especial)
$590 Vol.
76%
Michigan
$519 Vol.
75%
Iowa
$766 Vol.
74%
Alaska
$354 Vol.
71%
Texas
$1,937 Vol.
69%
Maine
$228 Vol.
65%
New Hampshire
$1,001 Vol.
47%
Nebraska
$1,867 Vol.
45%
Georgia
$163 Vol.
36%
Florida (Especial)
$977 Vol.
29%
Carolina del Norte
$1,712 Vol.
28%
Minnesota
$5,497 Vol.
26%
Nuevo México
$1,813 Vol.
11%
Montana
$1,257 Vol.
8%
Virginia
$897 Vol.
5%
Colorado
$1,562 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several competitive 2026 Senate contests stand out due to an unusually high number of retirements—eleven announced so far—combined with open seats in states featuring mixed partisan leans. Recent updates from forecasters have shifted North Carolina to lean Democratic and placed Alaska and Ohio in toss-up territory, reflecting candidate recruitment, early fundraising, and primary outcomes. Special elections in Florida and Ohio, triggered by prior resignations, add further variables. Upcoming August primaries in states such as Michigan will clarify nominees and could alter polling margins ahead of the November 3 general election. These factors shape trader assessments of races likely to finish within narrow margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$21,139Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several competitive 2026 Senate contests stand out due to an unusually high number of retirements—eleven announced so far—combined with open seats in states featuring mixed partisan leans. Recent updates from forecasters have shifted North Carolina to lean Democratic and placed Alaska and Ohio in toss-up territory, reflecting candidate recruitment, early fundraising, and primary outcomes. Special elections in Florida and Ohio, triggered by prior resignations, add further variables. Upcoming August primaries in states such as Michigan will clarify nominees and could alter polling margins ahead of the November 3 general election. These factors shape trader assessments of races likely to finish within narrow margins.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$21,139Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Several competitive 2026 Senate contests stand out due to an unusually high number of retirements—eleven announced so far—combined with open seats in states featuring mixed partisan leans. Recent updates from forecasters have shifted North Carolina to lean Democratic and placed Alaska and Ohio in toss-up territory, reflecting candidate recruitment, early fundraising, and primary outcomes. Special elections in Florida and Ohio, triggered by prior resignations, add further variables. Upcoming August primaries in states such as Michigan will clarify nominees and could alter polling margins ahead of the November 3 general election. These factors shape trader assessments of races likely to finish within narrow margins.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes