**Recent congressional action on a continuing resolution has shaped trader views.** In late August and early September 2026, the Senate passed and the House cleared a short-term funding measure extending current appropriations through December 11 to avert a government shutdown ahead of the midterms. The bill deliberately excluded the Trump administration’s June 2026 request for an $87.6 billion supplemental package—primarily $67 billion for Pentagon costs tied to the Iran conflict—while maintaining fiscal year 2026 defense spending levels without new war-related appropriations. Democratic opposition to additional funding for the Iran operations, combined with Republican priorities focused on avoiding disruption before November, has stalled progress on any standalone supplemental bill. With only weeks remaining before the September 30 deadline and no scheduled votes on a $20 billion-plus war funding measure, the Senate’s path to passage appears limited. Traders have priced this procedural and political reality into the current 62% probability for “No.”