**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos titulares demócratas de la Cámara de Representantes no ganarán sus primarias?
¿Cuántos titulares demócratas de la Cámara de Representantes no ganarán sus primarias?
10-12 86.4%
13-15 5.0%
7-9 1.3%
$51,319 Vol.
$51,319 Vol.
7-9
1%
10-12
86%
13-15
5%
10-12 86.4%
13-15 5.0%
7-9 1.3%
$51,319 Vol.
$51,319 Vol.
7-9
$14,599 Vol.
1%
10-12
$11,153 Vol.
86%
13-15
$5,115 Vol.
5%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volumen
$51,319Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$51,319Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Trader consensus heavily favors 10-12 Democratic House incumbents failing to win renomination in the 2026 cycle, reflecting a series of primary defeats driven by generational challenges and progressive insurgencies.** Multiple safe-seat incumbents have already fallen, including Reps. Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York to candidates backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Rep. Diana DeGette in Colorado to a democratic socialist challenger, and Reps. Shri Thanedar in Michigan and John Larson in Connecticut amid similar anti-incumbent pushes. Redistricting in Texas also forced member-on-member contests that eliminated Rep. Al Green. These outcomes stem from voter frustration with long tenures, ideological divides over issues such as Israel policy and corporate influence, and demands for younger leadership. With primaries largely complete but a handful of runoffs and late contests remaining, the current pricing aligns with historical patterns of elevated but contained primary turnover in non-redistricting-heavy cycles.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
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Sí
¿Ganarían los senadores demócratas titulares todas sus elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
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¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos del Senado en exactamente tres elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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