**Trader consensus favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas plus expectations for one more upset among remaining contests.** Cassidy lost to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a competitive primary, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after a high-profile, well-funded campaign. These outcomes align with elevated primary pressure on some GOP incumbents this cycle, exceeding historical averages for Senate defeats. With roughly 20 Republican-held seats in the regular 2026 cycle and several incumbents retiring outright, the market prices in one additional loss before primaries conclude, while assigning low probability to zero, one, or four or more. No other major incumbent defeats have occurred recently, and most remaining Republican senators seeking renomination face limited or no serious opposition.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado3 72.2%
4 17.0%
2 7.1%
>4 <1%
$59,295 Vol.
$59,295 Vol.
0
<1%
1
<1%
2
7%
3
72%
4
17%
>4
<1%
3 72.2%
4 17.0%
2 7.1%
>4 <1%
$59,295 Vol.
$59,295 Vol.
0
$4,221 Vol.
<1%
1
$3,323 Vol.
<1%
2
$31,338 Vol.
7%
3
$10,795 Vol.
72%
4
$5,524 Vol.
17%
>4
$4,094 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas plus expectations for one more upset among remaining contests.**
Cassidy lost to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a competitive primary, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after a high-profile, well-funded campaign. These outcomes align with elevated primary pressure on some GOP incumbents this cycle, exceeding historical averages for Senate defeats. With roughly 20 Republican-held seats in the regular 2026 cycle and several incumbents retiring outright, the market prices in one additional loss before primaries conclude, while assigning low probability to zero, one, or four or more. No other major incumbent defeats have occurred recently, and most remaining Republican senators seeking renomination face limited or no serious opposition.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ET
Volumen
$59,295Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas plus expectations for one more upset among remaining contests.**
Cassidy lost to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a competitive primary, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after a high-profile, well-funded campaign. These outcomes align with elevated primary pressure on some GOP incumbents this cycle, exceeding historical averages for Senate defeats. With roughly 20 Republican-held seats in the regular 2026 cycle and several incumbents retiring outright, the market prices in one additional loss before primaries conclude, while assigning low probability to zero, one, or four or more. No other major incumbent defeats have occurred recently, and most remaining Republican senators seeking renomination face limited or no serious opposition.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$59,295Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:51 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
**Trader consensus favors three Republican Senate incumbents failing to win renomination, reflecting the confirmed defeats of Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and John Cornyn in Texas plus expectations for one more upset among remaining contests.** Cassidy lost to a Trump-endorsed challenger in a competitive primary, while Cornyn fell to Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton after a high-profile, well-funded campaign. These outcomes align with elevated primary pressure on some GOP incumbents this cycle, exceeding historical averages for Senate defeats. With roughly 20 Republican-held seats in the regular 2026 cycle and several incumbents retiring outright, the market prices in one additional loss before primaries conclude, while assigning low probability to zero, one, or four or more. No other major incumbent defeats have occurred recently, and most remaining Republican senators seeking renomination face limited or no serious opposition.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Ganarían los senadores demócratas titulares todas sus elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
93%
Sí
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
94%
Sí
¿Tendrá el Partido Republicano menos de 22 gobernaciones después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
31%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes