**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range (50.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s output from August 22–24, 2026, with <40 close behind at 27%.** This reflects typical weekend moderation in posting volume—recent data shows weekend daily averages around 18–20 tweets versus 30–50+ on weekdays—offset by ongoing but not explosive activity around SpaceX Starship progress, Tesla FSD updates, Grok promotions, and scattered political commentary. Recent August 22 posts (multiple replies, quotes, and originals on Starship resource shifts, voter ID issues, and AI tools) align with steady engagement rather than viral spikes or breaking crises that historically push daily counts above 40. Precursor brackets have settled in the 90–114 or higher ranges during busier periods, but the three-day window spanning a weekend lacks the sustained news cycle or product milestones needed to exceed 64. Higher brackets (65+) trade at lower odds because they would require unusually intense multi-day momentum, while the tight 40–64 band captures the most probable blend of routine replies, retweets, and commentary. Traders are pricing in the absence of major catalysts through Monday, with any late developments in space, AI, or politics as the key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado40-64 51%
<40 28%
65-89 21%
90-114 2.8%
$179,339 Vol.
$179,339 Vol.
24 ago 2026
<40
28%
40-64
51%
65-89
21%
90-114
3%
115-139
1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 51%
<40 28%
65-89 21%
90-114 2.8%
$179,339 Vol.
$179,339 Vol.
24 ago 2026
<40
$29,362 Vol.
28%
40-64
$22,899 Vol.
51%
65-89
$16,736 Vol.
21%
90-114
$22,884 Vol.
3%
115-139
$37,279 Vol.
1%
140-164
$13,747 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$11,398 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$12,538 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$8,044 Vol.
<1%
240+
$4,452 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range (50.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s output from August 22–24, 2026, with <40 close behind at 27%.** This reflects typical weekend moderation in posting volume—recent data shows weekend daily averages around 18–20 tweets versus 30–50+ on weekdays—offset by ongoing but not explosive activity around SpaceX Starship progress, Tesla FSD updates, Grok promotions, and scattered political commentary.
Recent August 22 posts (multiple replies, quotes, and originals on Starship resource shifts, voter ID issues, and AI tools) align with steady engagement rather than viral spikes or breaking crises that historically push daily counts above 40. Precursor brackets have settled in the 90–114 or higher ranges during busier periods, but the three-day window spanning a weekend lacks the sustained news cycle or product milestones needed to exceed 64. Higher brackets (65+) trade at lower odds because they would require unusually intense multi-day momentum, while the tight 40–64 band captures the most probable blend of routine replies, retweets, and commentary. Traders are pricing in the absence of major catalysts through Monday, with any late developments in space, AI, or politics as the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volumen
$179,339Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range (50.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s output from August 22–24, 2026, with <40 close behind at 27%.** This reflects typical weekend moderation in posting volume—recent data shows weekend daily averages around 18–20 tweets versus 30–50+ on weekdays—offset by ongoing but not explosive activity around SpaceX Starship progress, Tesla FSD updates, Grok promotions, and scattered political commentary.
Recent August 22 posts (multiple replies, quotes, and originals on Starship resource shifts, voter ID issues, and AI tools) align with steady engagement rather than viral spikes or breaking crises that historically push daily counts above 40. Precursor brackets have settled in the 90–114 or higher ranges during busier periods, but the three-day window spanning a weekend lacks the sustained news cycle or product milestones needed to exceed 64. Higher brackets (65+) trade at lower odds because they would require unusually intense multi-day momentum, while the tight 40–64 band captures the most probable blend of routine replies, retweets, and commentary. Traders are pricing in the absence of major catalysts through Monday, with any late developments in space, AI, or politics as the key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 22 12:00 PM ET to August 24, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volumen
$179,339Fecha de finalización
24 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the 40-64 tweet range (50.5% implied probability) for Elon Musk’s output from August 22–24, 2026, with <40 close behind at 27%.** This reflects typical weekend moderation in posting volume—recent data shows weekend daily averages around 18–20 tweets versus 30–50+ on weekdays—offset by ongoing but not explosive activity around SpaceX Starship progress, Tesla FSD updates, Grok promotions, and scattered political commentary. Recent August 22 posts (multiple replies, quotes, and originals on Starship resource shifts, voter ID issues, and AI tools) align with steady engagement rather than viral spikes or breaking crises that historically push daily counts above 40. Precursor brackets have settled in the 90–114 or higher ranges during busier periods, but the three-day window spanning a weekend lacks the sustained news cycle or product milestones needed to exceed 64. Higher brackets (65+) trade at lower odds because they would require unusually intense multi-day momentum, while the tight 40–64 band captures the most probable blend of routine replies, retweets, and commentary. Traders are pricing in the absence of major catalysts through Monday, with any late developments in space, AI, or politics as the key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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