**Recent weekly tweet totals for Elon Musk have fluctuated sharply between under 40 and over 240 posts, creating a wide probability distribution centered on the 180-279 range.** The tight clustering of implied odds—peaking at just 13.5% for 220-239—reflects traders pricing in high week-to-week variance rather than a stable baseline. Activity spikes often align with SpaceX Starship updates, Tesla AI or Optimus news, X platform metrics, or Grok model releases, all of which have generated multiple original posts and replies in the past week. Conversely, quieter periods produce far fewer engagements. With no major scheduled catalysts like product launches or summits falling precisely in the August 25–September 1 window, sentiment hinges on whether routine company commentary and real-time reactions push volume toward the upper or lower end of recent norms. The market’s broad dispersion underscores the inherent unpredictability of daily posting patterns driven by breaking developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado220-239 14%
240-259 13%
180-199 12%
200-219 12%
$16,964 Vol.
$16,964 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
5%
160-179
8%
180-199
12%
200-219
12%
220-239
14%
240-259
13%
260-279
11%
280-299
8%
300-319
5%
320-339
4%
340-359
2%
360-379
2%
380-399
2%
400-419
2%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500+
1%
220-239 14%
240-259 13%
180-199 12%
200-219 12%
$16,964 Vol.
$16,964 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
5%
160-179
8%
180-199
12%
200-219
12%
220-239
14%
240-259
13%
260-279
11%
280-299
8%
300-319
5%
320-339
4%
340-359
2%
360-379
2%
380-399
2%
400-419
2%
420-439
1%
440-459
1%
460-479
1%
480-499
1%
500+
1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 22, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.poly.havingsomuch.fun. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Fuente de resolución
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent weekly tweet totals for Elon Musk have fluctuated sharply between under 40 and over 240 posts, creating a wide probability distribution centered on the 180-279 range.** The tight clustering of implied odds—peaking at just 13.5% for 220-239—reflects traders pricing in high week-to-week variance rather than a stable baseline. Activity spikes often align with SpaceX Starship updates, Tesla AI or Optimus news, X platform metrics, or Grok model releases, all of which have generated multiple original posts and replies in the past week. Conversely, quieter periods produce far fewer engagements. With no major scheduled catalysts like product launches or summits falling precisely in the August 25–September 1 window, sentiment hinges on whether routine company commentary and real-time reactions push volume toward the upper or lower end of recent norms. The market’s broad dispersion underscores the inherent unpredictability of daily posting patterns driven by breaking developments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes