Recent ensemble forecasts from global models such as ECMWF place Warsaw’s August 4 maximum temperature in the 33–35 °C range, aligning with the market’s near-even split between 33 °C and 34 °C outcomes. Primary drivers include a persistent warm anomaly across central Europe, supported by above-average North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures and light southerly flow under mostly clear skies that enhance afternoon solar heating. Small differences among leading probabilities stem from model spread in predicted cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing depth, and exact timing of any weak frontal passage, all of which can shift the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated high-resolution runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will further constrain the outcome before resolution.