**Trader sentiment for Manila's August 4 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 28–30°C (combined ~82% probability), reflecting uncertainty in how monsoon-driven cloud cover and rainfall will moderate peak readings.** PAGASA's extended outlook for Metro Manila shows a forecast high of 31°C on August 4 with 70–100% rain chance, consistent with the southwest monsoon (habagat) pattern that typically produces daytime maxima near 31°C amid frequent showers and thunderstorms. Recent days have followed similar patterns—August 2–3 highs of 31–32°C with widespread convective activity—yet persistent cloudiness and localized downpours often cap actual peaks below model guidance. Historical August climatology supports this range, with average highs around 31°C but high day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and storm tracks. The near-even split between 28°C and 29°C outcomes highlights traders' focus on whether enhanced rainfall or clearer breaks will shift the realized maximum, with official agency updates and real-time observations likely to drive any near-term adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 4 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Manila el 4 de agosto?
28°C 32%
29°C 31%
30°C 20%
27°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 ago 2026
23°C o menos
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
9%
27°C
12%
28°C
32%
29°C
31%
30°C
20%
31°C
9%
32°C
4%
33°C o más
1%
28°C 32%
29°C 31%
30°C 20%
27°C 12%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 ago 2026
23°C o menos
$38 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$35 Vol.
2%
26°C
$3 Vol.
9%
27°C
$80 Vol.
12%
28°C
$85 Vol.
32%
29°C
$60 Vol.
31%
30°C
$1 Vol.
20%
31°C
$5 Vol.
9%
32°C
$20 Vol.
4%
33°C o más
$52 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's August 4 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 28–30°C (combined ~82% probability), reflecting uncertainty in how monsoon-driven cloud cover and rainfall will moderate peak readings.**
PAGASA's extended outlook for Metro Manila shows a forecast high of 31°C on August 4 with 70–100% rain chance, consistent with the southwest monsoon (habagat) pattern that typically produces daytime maxima near 31°C amid frequent showers and thunderstorms. Recent days have followed similar patterns—August 2–3 highs of 31–32°C with widespread convective activity—yet persistent cloudiness and localized downpours often cap actual peaks below model guidance. Historical August climatology supports this range, with average highs around 31°C but high day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and storm tracks. The near-even split between 28°C and 29°C outcomes highlights traders' focus on whether enhanced rainfall or clearer breaks will shift the realized maximum, with official agency updates and real-time observations likely to drive any near-term adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$407Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Manila's August 4 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 28–30°C (combined ~82% probability), reflecting uncertainty in how monsoon-driven cloud cover and rainfall will moderate peak readings.**
PAGASA's extended outlook for Metro Manila shows a forecast high of 31°C on August 4 with 70–100% rain chance, consistent with the southwest monsoon (habagat) pattern that typically produces daytime maxima near 31°C amid frequent showers and thunderstorms. Recent days have followed similar patterns—August 2–3 highs of 31–32°C with widespread convective activity—yet persistent cloudiness and localized downpours often cap actual peaks below model guidance. Historical August climatology supports this range, with average highs around 31°C but high day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and storm tracks. The near-even split between 28°C and 29°C outcomes highlights traders' focus on whether enhanced rainfall or clearer breaks will shift the realized maximum, with official agency updates and real-time observations likely to drive any near-term adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$407Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Manila's August 4 maximum temperature clusters tightly around 28–30°C (combined ~82% probability), reflecting uncertainty in how monsoon-driven cloud cover and rainfall will moderate peak readings.** PAGASA's extended outlook for Metro Manila shows a forecast high of 31°C on August 4 with 70–100% rain chance, consistent with the southwest monsoon (habagat) pattern that typically produces daytime maxima near 31°C amid frequent showers and thunderstorms. Recent days have followed similar patterns—August 2–3 highs of 31–32°C with widespread convective activity—yet persistent cloudiness and localized downpours often cap actual peaks below model guidance. Historical August climatology supports this range, with average highs around 31°C but high day-to-day variability from tropical moisture and storm tracks. The near-even split between 28°C and 29°C outcomes highlights traders' focus on whether enhanced rainfall or clearer breaks will shift the realized maximum, with official agency updates and real-time observations likely to drive any near-term adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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