Recent forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and global models indicate daily minimum temperatures around 25–26°C for August 4 amid typical summer monsoon conditions, with showers and high humidity limiting overnight radiative cooling. These align with climatological baselines for early August, when subtropical heat and moisture keep lows rarely dipping below 24°C absent a strong cold front or tropical cyclone influence, neither of which current guidance supports. Trader emphasis on the 25°C outcome reflects model consensus and historical frequency of such readings, while lower probabilities for 24°C or below account for residual uncertainty in local wind patterns and urban heat-island effects that could nudge the minimum slightly higher. Updated short-range runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities as land-sea breeze and precipitation timing become clearer.