Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Ámsterdam el 4 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Ámsterdam el 4 de agosto?
30°C 35%
31°C 27%
29°C 19%
28°C o menos 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 ago 2026
28°C o menos
16%
29°C
19%
30°C
35%
31°C
27%
32°C
7%
33 °C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C o más
<1%
30°C 35%
31°C 27%
29°C 19%
28°C o menos 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 ago 2026
28°C o menos
$1,253 Vol.
16%
29°C
$146 Vol.
19%
30°C
$222 Vol.
35%
31°C
$583 Vol.
27%
32°C
$166 Vol.
7%
33 °C
$56 Vol.
2%
34°C
$179 Vol.
1%
35°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$143 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$133 Vol.
<1%
38°C o más
$133 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$3,167Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,167Fecha de finalización
4 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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