Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a consensus for Warsaw highs of 29–32°C on August 15 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly flow, and minimal precipitation, positioning 31°C as the market leader with 39.5% implied probability. These conditions stem from a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing daytime mixing and allowing efficient solar heating, consistent with mid-August climatology where average maxima reach 23–25°C but can exceed 30°C during clear spells. Model spreads remain modest, with slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the secondary clustering at 30°C and 29°C. Traders monitor the next ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter peak values before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 15 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 15 de agosto?
31°C 39%
30°C 29%
29°C 18%
32°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 ago 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
3%
29°C
18%
30°C
29%
31°C
39%
32°C
11%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
1%
31°C 39%
30°C 29%
29°C 18%
32°C 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 ago 2026
25°C or below
$53 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$13 Vol.
1%
27°C
$7 Vol.
4%
28°C
$112 Vol.
3%
29°C
$167 Vol.
18%
30°C
$67 Vol.
29%
31°C
$86 Vol.
39%
32°C
$126 Vol.
11%
33°C
$131 Vol.
2%
34°C
$47 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$91 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a consensus for Warsaw highs of 29–32°C on August 15 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly flow, and minimal precipitation, positioning 31°C as the market leader with 39.5% implied probability. These conditions stem from a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing daytime mixing and allowing efficient solar heating, consistent with mid-August climatology where average maxima reach 23–25°C but can exceed 30°C during clear spells. Model spreads remain modest, with slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the secondary clustering at 30°C and 29°C. Traders monitor the next ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter peak values before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$828Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a consensus for Warsaw highs of 29–32°C on August 15 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly flow, and minimal precipitation, positioning 31°C as the market leader with 39.5% implied probability. These conditions stem from a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing daytime mixing and allowing efficient solar heating, consistent with mid-August climatology where average maxima reach 23–25°C but can exceed 30°C during clear spells. Model spreads remain modest, with slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the secondary clustering at 30°C and 29°C. Traders monitor the next ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter peak values before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$828Fecha de finalización
15 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecasts from agencies like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services show a consensus for Warsaw highs of 29–32°C on August 15 under scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly flow, and minimal precipitation, positioning 31°C as the market leader with 39.5% implied probability. These conditions stem from a stable high-pressure pattern suppressing daytime mixing and allowing efficient solar heating, consistent with mid-August climatology where average maxima reach 23–25°C but can exceed 30°C during clear spells. Model spreads remain modest, with slight upward revisions in some runs supporting the secondary clustering at 30°C and 29°C. Traders monitor the next ECMWF and GFS updates for any shifts in cloud cover or wind that could alter peak values before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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