Forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate a peak surface temperature near 101°F for Austin on August 12 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, driving the 65% market-implied probability for the 100-101°F range. Central Texas summer climatology, with average August highs near 96-99°F, combined with recent model consensus showing limited cloud cover or moisture advection, supports this outcome while capping upside risk. The 17% chance assigned to 102-103°F reflects minor uncertainty in afternoon mixing and heat index contributions, whereas lower bins remain subdued absent a stronger cold front or widespread convection. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution time will refine these trader-assessed probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Austin el 12 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Austin el 12 de agosto?
100-101°F 66%
102-103°F 18%
98-99°F 17%
104-105°F 2.0%
NUEVO
$14,690 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,690 Vol.
12 ago 2026
91°F o menos
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
2%
98-99°F
17%
100-101°F
66%
102-103°F
18%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
<1%
108-109°F
<1%
110°F o más
<1%
100-101°F 66%
102-103°F 18%
98-99°F 17%
104-105°F 2.0%
NUEVO
$14,690 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,690 Vol.
12 ago 2026
91°F o menos
$610 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$2,739 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$2,718 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$748 Vol.
2%
98-99°F
$1,290 Vol.
17%
100-101°F
$2,857 Vol.
66%
102-103°F
$1,271 Vol.
18%
104-105°F
$1,005 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$389 Vol.
<1%
108-109°F
$504 Vol.
<1%
110°F o más
$559 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate a peak surface temperature near 101°F for Austin on August 12 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, driving the 65% market-implied probability for the 100-101°F range. Central Texas summer climatology, with average August highs near 96-99°F, combined with recent model consensus showing limited cloud cover or moisture advection, supports this outcome while capping upside risk. The 17% chance assigned to 102-103°F reflects minor uncertainty in afternoon mixing and heat index contributions, whereas lower bins remain subdued absent a stronger cold front or widespread convection. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution time will refine these trader-assessed probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volumen
$14,690Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate a peak surface temperature near 101°F for Austin on August 12 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, driving the 65% market-implied probability for the 100-101°F range. Central Texas summer climatology, with average August highs near 96-99°F, combined with recent model consensus showing limited cloud cover or moisture advection, supports this outcome while capping upside risk. The 17% chance assigned to 102-103°F reflects minor uncertainty in afternoon mixing and heat index contributions, whereas lower bins remain subdued absent a stronger cold front or widespread convection. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution time will refine these trader-assessed probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$14,690Fecha de finalización
12 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 10, 2026, 9:03 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecasts from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicate a peak surface temperature near 101°F for Austin on August 12 under persistent high pressure and clear skies, driving the 65% market-implied probability for the 100-101°F range. Central Texas summer climatology, with average August highs near 96-99°F, combined with recent model consensus showing limited cloud cover or moisture advection, supports this outcome while capping upside risk. The 17% chance assigned to 102-103°F reflects minor uncertainty in afternoon mixing and heat index contributions, whereas lower bins remain subdued absent a stronger cold front or widespread convection. Updated model runs and official observations near resolution time will refine these trader-assessed probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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