Current forecasts from NOAA and regional models position Houston's August 12 high near the seasonal average of 95°F, with mid- to upper-90s readings expected under typical subtropical high pressure and southerly flow. Elevated humidity supports heat indices above 100°F but does not alter the dry-bulb temperature outcome traders are pricing. Recent model runs show limited convective activity that could cap afternoon peaks near 94–97°F, aligning with the market's concentration on those bins (48.5% and 30.5% implied probabilities). Historical August maxima rarely exceed 99°F without stronger ridging, keeping tail outcomes below 3% combined. Updated NWS guidance and afternoon observations will determine final resolution within the narrow 92–98°F window.