Trader consensus on the 2.0–2.5% band for 2026 U.S. GDP growth, carrying 55% market-implied odds, reflects the balance between resilient AI-driven capital expenditures and moderating consumer spending amid elevated energy prices. Recent data show real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1, while private forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and others cluster near 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Higher oil prices and tariff pass-through have lifted inflation above target, constraining policy easing, yet labor market stability near 4.3% unemployment and strong business investment provide support. Upcoming Q3 releases and the September FOMC projections could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum or inflation trends deviate from current baselines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2.0–2.5% 55%
1,5–2,0% 15.9%
>2,5% 10.7%
<0.5% 3.8%
$67,983 Vol.
$67,983 Vol.
28 ene 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
1%
1.0–1.5%
1%
1,5–2,0%
16%
2.0–2.5%
55%
>2,5%
11%
2.0–2.5% 55%
1,5–2,0% 15.9%
>2,5% 10.7%
<0.5% 3.8%
$67,983 Vol.
$67,983 Vol.
28 ene 2027
<0.5%
$7,983 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$17,634 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.5%
$4,234 Vol.
1%
1,5–2,0%
$8,506 Vol.
16%
2.0–2.5%
$12,753 Vol.
55%
>2,5%
$16,872 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the 2.0–2.5% band for 2026 U.S. GDP growth, carrying 55% market-implied odds, reflects the balance between resilient AI-driven capital expenditures and moderating consumer spending amid elevated energy prices. Recent data show real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1, while private forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and others cluster near 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Higher oil prices and tariff pass-through have lifted inflation above target, constraining policy easing, yet labor market stability near 4.3% unemployment and strong business investment provide support. Upcoming Q3 releases and the September FOMC projections could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum or inflation trends deviate from current baselines.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$67,983Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on the 2.0–2.5% band for 2026 U.S. GDP growth, carrying 55% market-implied odds, reflects the balance between resilient AI-driven capital expenditures and moderating consumer spending amid elevated energy prices. Recent data show real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1, while private forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and others cluster near 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Higher oil prices and tariff pass-through have lifted inflation above target, constraining policy easing, yet labor market stability near 4.3% unemployment and strong business investment provide support. Upcoming Q3 releases and the September FOMC projections could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum or inflation trends deviate from current baselines.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$67,983Fecha de finalización
29 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2.0–2.5% band for 2026 U.S. GDP growth, carrying 55% market-implied odds, reflects the balance between resilient AI-driven capital expenditures and moderating consumer spending amid elevated energy prices. Recent data show real GDP expanding at a 1.5% annualized rate in Q2 2026, down from 2.1% in Q1, while private forecasts from the IMF, Federal Reserve, and others cluster near 2.0–2.3% for the full year. Higher oil prices and tariff pass-through have lifted inflation above target, constraining policy easing, yet labor market stability near 4.3% unemployment and strong business investment provide support. Upcoming Q3 releases and the September FOMC projections could shift implied probabilities if growth momentum or inflation trends deviate from current baselines.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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