China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands highest at a combined 78.5% probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print—the slowest pace in over three years—and persistent weakness in domestic demand, consumption, and fixed-asset investment amid the property downturn. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and services growth have provided an offset, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities including accelerated bond issuance and “Six Networks” infrastructure spending. Early Q3 indicators show further softening from extreme weather and subdued retail sales, yet traders appear to embed modest policy support lifting growth toward the 4.5% area ahead of the October 19 release. Market-implied odds align with consensus forecasts near 4.6% for the quarter and full-year 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4.3-4.6% 45%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 18.4%
3.7-4.0% 4.3%
$33,664 Vol.
$33,664 Vol.
19 oct 2026
<3.4%
<1%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
4%
4.0-4.3%
18%
4.3-4.6%
45%
4.6-4.9%
34%
4.9-5.2%
1%
5.2-5.5%
<1%
5.5%+
<1%
4.3-4.6% 45%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 18.4%
3.7-4.0% 4.3%
$33,664 Vol.
$33,664 Vol.
19 oct 2026
<3.4%
$1,297 Vol.
<1%
3.4-3.7%
$694 Vol.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$1,326 Vol.
4%
4.0-4.3%
$2,410 Vol.
18%
4.3-4.6%
$12,639 Vol.
45%
4.6-4.9%
$8,897 Vol.
34%
4.9-5.2%
$3,475 Vol.
1%
5.2-5.5%
$1,537 Vol.
<1%
5.5%+
$1,390 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands highest at a combined 78.5% probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print—the slowest pace in over three years—and persistent weakness in domestic demand, consumption, and fixed-asset investment amid the property downturn. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and services growth have provided an offset, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities including accelerated bond issuance and “Six Networks” infrastructure spending. Early Q3 indicators show further softening from extreme weather and subdued retail sales, yet traders appear to embed modest policy support lifting growth toward the 4.5% area ahead of the October 19 release. Market-implied odds align with consensus forecasts near 4.6% for the quarter and full-year 2026.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Mercado abierto: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Volumen
$33,664Fecha de finalización
20 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlChina’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands highest at a combined 78.5% probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print—the slowest pace in over three years—and persistent weakness in domestic demand, consumption, and fixed-asset investment amid the property downturn. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and services growth have provided an offset, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities including accelerated bond issuance and “Six Networks” infrastructure spending. Early Q3 indicators show further softening from extreme weather and subdued retail sales, yet traders appear to embed modest policy support lifting growth toward the 4.5% area ahead of the October 19 release. Market-implied odds align with consensus forecasts near 4.6% for the quarter and full-year 2026.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Volumen
$33,664Fecha de finalización
20 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth (year-over-year) market prices the 4.3-4.6% and 4.6-4.9% bands highest at a combined 78.5% probability, reflecting Q2’s 4.3% print—the slowest pace in over three years—and persistent weakness in domestic demand, consumption, and fixed-asset investment amid the property downturn. Resilient exports, high-tech manufacturing, and services growth have provided an offset, while the July Politburo meeting reinforced fiscal stimulus priorities including accelerated bond issuance and “Six Networks” infrastructure spending. Early Q3 indicators show further softening from extreme weather and subdued retail sales, yet traders appear to embed modest policy support lifting growth toward the 4.5% area ahead of the October 19 release. Market-implied odds align with consensus forecasts near 4.6% for the quarter and full-year 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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