Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 40 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and all other candidates in single digits or lower. This positioning has held steady across multiple surveys in September, with Flávio consolidating right-wing support as the Liberal Party nominee and gaining modestly among women and other groups. Lower-polling figures such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado remain distant and have shown little upward movement. With the vote only weeks away and no major late shifts reported, trader pricing reflects the durable gap between the top two contenders and the limited prospects for any other candidate to overtake Flávio for second place.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoFlávio Bolsonaro 76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 20.2%
Renan Santos <1%
Augusto Cury <1%
$7,169,842 Vol.
$7,169,842 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
20%
Renan Santos
1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 20.2%
Renan Santos <1%
Augusto Cury <1%
$7,169,842 Vol.
$7,169,842 Vol.
Flávio Bolsonaro
76%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
20%
Renan Santos
1%
Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading with roughly 40 percent, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro in the low-to-mid 30s and all other candidates in single digits or lower. This positioning has held steady across multiple surveys in September, with Flávio consolidating right-wing support as the Liberal Party nominee and gaining modestly among women and other groups. Lower-polling figures such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, and Ronaldo Caiado remain distant and have shown little upward movement. With the vote only weeks away and no major late shifts reported, trader pricing reflects the durable gap between the top two contenders and the limited prospects for any other candidate to overtake Flávio for second place.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Augusto Cury terminará en tercer lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?
¿Obtendrá Flavio Bolsonaro la mayor cantidad de votos en la próxima elección presidencial de Brasil en el Distrito Federal?
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes