Recent polling shows Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro dominating first-round intentions at roughly 38-41% and 30-36%, respectively, leaving a fragmented field for third place among center-right and libertarian-leaning contenders. Renan Santos leads trader consensus for that slot due to his steady single-digit support in surveys, stronger performance among younger voters, and positioning as an anti-establishment alternative within the broader right. Ronaldo Caiado follows as a close second in the market, drawing on his gubernatorial record and PSD base but trailing Santos in recent national samples. Romeu Zema, Augusto Cury, and others register lower single digits or below, with limited momentum ahead of the October 4 vote. The campaign launch in mid-August has not yet produced major shifts that would consolidate or reorder these lower-tier probabilities.