Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling averages near 40 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consolidating right-wing support around 33 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners, combined with tightening runoff simulations in surveys such as Quaest showing near-ties, have reinforced trader consensus that these two will advance. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Key influences include voter priorities on crime and the economy, the legal barriers keeping Jair Bolsonaro off the ballot, and the official start of campaigning on August 16. A runoff is scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
¿Qué candidatos avanzarán a la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil?
$481,708 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
93%
Renan Santos
6%
Romeu Zema
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
$481,708 Vol.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$218,815 Vol.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$48,874 Vol.
93%
Renan Santos
$15,378 Vol.
6%
Romeu Zema
$610 Vol.
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$34,442 Vol.
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$698 Vol.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
$81,768 Vol.
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
$15,629 Vol.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$65,495 Vol.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling averages near 40 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consolidating right-wing support around 33 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners, combined with tightening runoff simulations in surveys such as Quaest showing near-ties, have reinforced trader consensus that these two will advance. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Key influences include voter priorities on crime and the economy, the legal barriers keeping Jair Bolsonaro off the ballot, and the official start of campaigning on August 16. A runoff is scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Volumen
$481,708Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling averages near 40 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consolidating right-wing support around 33 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners, combined with tightening runoff simulations in surveys such as Quaest showing near-ties, have reinforced trader consensus that these two will advance. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Key influences include voter priorities on crime and the economy, the legal barriers keeping Jair Bolsonaro off the ballot, and the official start of campaigning on August 16. A runoff is scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$481,708Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling averages near 40 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party consolidating right-wing support around 33 percent after receiving his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement. Recent campaign launches by both frontrunners, combined with tightening runoff simulations in surveys such as Quaest showing near-ties, have reinforced trader consensus that these two will advance. Other contenders including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. Key influences include voter priorities on crime and the economy, the legal barriers keeping Jair Bolsonaro off the ballot, and the official start of campaigning on August 16. A runoff is scheduled for October 25 if no candidate secures an outright majority.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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