Recent polling shows Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 election, though the gap has narrowed to roughly four to ten points across major surveys as the official campaign period intensifies. Factors sustaining the close contest include Flávio's consolidation of conservative support despite limited alliances from centrist parties, rising rejection rates for both frontrunners, and the emergence of secondary candidates such as Augusto Cury that fragment the field. The market's emphasis on a 5-10% or sub-5% margin for Lula aligns with this tightening dynamic, where late swings in swing regions or turnout among undecided voters could shift the outcome before the first-round vote count concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrimera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Primera ronda de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil: margen de victoria
Lula da Silva 5-10% 43%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.4%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.8%
$364,298 Vol.
$364,298 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
43%
Lula da Silva <5%
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
7%
Victoria de Renan Santos
<1%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Otro
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 43%
Lula da Silva <5% 38%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 7.4%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 6.8%
$364,298 Vol.
$364,298 Vol.
3 oct 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$15,836 Vol.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$30,151 Vol.
7%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$26,425 Vol.
43%
Lula da Silva <5%
$30,536 Vol.
38%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$10,745 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$9,025 Vol.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$14,226 Vol.
7%
Victoria de Renan Santos
$211,721 Vol.
<1%
Victoria de Tarcisio de Freitas
$4,889 Vol.
<1%
Victoria de Ratinho Júnior
$4,913 Vol.
<1%
Otro
$5,830 Vol.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 election, though the gap has narrowed to roughly four to ten points across major surveys as the official campaign period intensifies. Factors sustaining the close contest include Flávio's consolidation of conservative support despite limited alliances from centrist parties, rising rejection rates for both frontrunners, and the emergence of secondary candidates such as Augusto Cury that fragment the field. The market's emphasis on a 5-10% or sub-5% margin for Lula aligns with this tightening dynamic, where late swings in swing regions or turnout among undecided voters could shift the outcome before the first-round vote count concludes.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Volumen
$364,298Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling shows Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 election, though the gap has narrowed to roughly four to ten points across major surveys as the official campaign period intensifies. Factors sustaining the close contest include Flávio's consolidation of conservative support despite limited alliances from centrist parties, rising rejection rates for both frontrunners, and the emergence of secondary candidates such as Augusto Cury that fragment the field. The market's emphasis on a 5-10% or sub-5% margin for Lula aligns with this tightening dynamic, where late swings in swing regions or turnout among undecided voters could shift the outcome before the first-round vote count concludes.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$364,298Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling shows Lula da Silva maintaining a lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in first-round voting intentions ahead of the October 4 election, though the gap has narrowed to roughly four to ten points across major surveys as the official campaign period intensifies. Factors sustaining the close contest include Flávio's consolidation of conservative support despite limited alliances from centrist parties, rising rejection rates for both frontrunners, and the emergence of secondary candidates such as Augusto Cury that fragment the field. The market's emphasis on a 5-10% or sub-5% margin for Lula aligns with this tightening dynamic, where late swings in swing regions or turnout among undecided voters could shift the outcome before the first-round vote count concludes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Terminará Flávio Bolsonaro en segundo lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
87%
Sí
¿Ganará Lula la mayor cantidad de votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Brasil de 2026?
92%
Sí
¿Augusto Cury terminará en tercer lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
52%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes