Cid Gomes holds a narrow lead in trader-implied probabilities for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate election, supported by his incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent positioning atop recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest. The race remains competitive, with Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins trailing but within striking distance in AtlasIntel surveys that show vote shares clustered in the low-to-mid 20s. Party alignments—PSB backing for Gomes versus União Brasil support for Wagner and Rede positioning for Lins—along with the two-seat structure and late-August candidate registrations have kept the field fragmented. Limited movement in polling averages since July has sustained the current pricing, though shifts in turnout among key blocs or last-minute alliances could still alter the ordering before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCid Gomes 55%
Capitão Wagner 26%
Luizianne 12%
Alcides Fernandes 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Cid Gomes
55%
Capitão Wagner
26%
Luizianne
12%
Alcides Fernandes
5%
Catarina Matos
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
3%
Lino Alves
3%
Reginaldo
3%
Cid Gomes 55%
Capitão Wagner 26%
Luizianne 12%
Alcides Fernandes 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Cid Gomes
$306 Vol.
55%
Capitão Wagner
$174 Vol.
26%
Luizianne
$41 Vol.
12%
Alcides Fernandes
$40 Vol.
5%
Catarina Matos
$109 Vol.
4%
Guilherme Theophilo
$86 Vol.
3%
Lino Alves
$86 Vol.
3%
Reginaldo
$88 Vol.
3%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes holds a narrow lead in trader-implied probabilities for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate election, supported by his incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent positioning atop recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest. The race remains competitive, with Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins trailing but within striking distance in AtlasIntel surveys that show vote shares clustered in the low-to-mid 20s. Party alignments—PSB backing for Gomes versus União Brasil support for Wagner and Rede positioning for Lins—along with the two-seat structure and late-August candidate registrations have kept the field fragmented. Limited movement in polling averages since July has sustained the current pricing, though shifts in turnout among key blocs or last-minute alliances could still alter the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volumen
$931Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Cid Gomes holds a narrow lead in trader-implied probabilities for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate election, supported by his incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent positioning atop recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest. The race remains competitive, with Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins trailing but within striking distance in AtlasIntel surveys that show vote shares clustered in the low-to-mid 20s. Party alignments—PSB backing for Gomes versus União Brasil support for Wagner and Rede positioning for Lins—along with the two-seat structure and late-August candidate registrations have kept the field fragmented. Limited movement in polling averages since July has sustained the current pricing, though shifts in turnout among key blocs or last-minute alliances could still alter the ordering before election day.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$931Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Cid Gomes holds a narrow lead in trader-implied probabilities for first place in Ceará’s October 2026 Senate election, supported by his incumbency, established name recognition, and consistent positioning atop recent polls from Datafolha and Quaest. The race remains competitive, with Capitão Wagner and Luizianne Lins trailing but within striking distance in AtlasIntel surveys that show vote shares clustered in the low-to-mid 20s. Party alignments—PSB backing for Gomes versus União Brasil support for Wagner and Rede positioning for Lins—along with the two-seat structure and late-August candidate registrations have kept the field fragmented. Limited movement in polling averages since July has sustained the current pricing, though shifts in turnout among key blocs or last-minute alliances could still alter the ordering before election day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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