Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?
Politik·US-Wahl

Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?

icon for Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?
Politik·US-Wahl

Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?

16% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
16% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. **Several competitive Senate and House races heading into the November 2026 midterms are rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters, yet current polling averages and models project margins in the low single digits or higher rather than at the 0.01% threshold.** Polarization, larger district and statewide electorates, and standard polling error make outcomes clustered within one-hundredth of a percent statistically uncommon. Historical data from recent cycles shows the tightest congressional margins typically fall between 0.09% and 0.78%, with no recent federal or statewide midterm results approaching the queried precision. As Election Day approaches, late shifts in turnout or small-scale events could narrow some contests, but the prevailing trader view reflected in the 72% probability on “No” aligns with expectations that no race will land inside that razor-thin band.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.

For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.

The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$10
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. **Several competitive Senate and House races heading into the November 2026 midterms are rated toss-ups or leans by forecasters, yet current polling averages and models project margins in the low single digits or higher rather than at the 0.01% threshold.** Polarization, larger district and statewide electorates, and standard polling error make outcomes clustered within one-hundredth of a percent statistically uncommon. Historical data from recent cycles shows the tightest congressional margins typically fall between 0.09% and 0.78%, with no recent federal or statewide midterm results approaching the queried precision. As Election Day approaches, late shifts in turnout or small-scale events could narrow some contests, but the prevailing trader view reflected in the 72% probability on “No” aligns with expectations that no race will land inside that razor-thin band.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States.

For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner.

The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal or statewide election held on November 3 has a margin of victory of 0.01% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate or option will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. In the midterms, a federal election is an election to either the United States Senate or House of Representatives (including non-voting seats), and a statewide election is any election, excluding ballot measures, which is on the ballot for all voting individuals within one of the fifty United States. For elections decided through ranked-choice voting or another multi-round tabulation of ballots cast in a single election, the relevant margin will be the margin between the final two candidates in the tabulation round in which the winner is determined, calculated using the valid votes remaining active in that round. If a separate runoff or subsequent round is held on another date, only the results of the November 3 election will be considered, regardless of whether that election determines the eventual winner. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results of the United States state and territorial election authorities, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the results of any election cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, it will not be included for purposes of this market.
Volumen
$10
Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...

Verwandte

icon for Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

Will Georgia have the closest Governor's race in 2026?

25%
icon for Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

Will the Ohio Special 2026 Senate race be within 1%?

52%
icon for Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?

Will Texas have the closest Senate race in 2026?

15%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket, auf dem Händler „Ja"- oder „Nein"-Anteile kaufen und verkaufen, je nachdem, ob sie glauben, dass dieses Ereignis eintreten wird. Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit laut Community liegt bei 28% für „Yes". Wird „Ja" beispielsweise bei 28¢ gehandelt, schätzt der Markt die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Eintretens auf 28%. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen und Informationen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 1, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?" zu handeln, wählen Sie einfach, ob Sie glauben, dass die Antwort „Ja" oder „Nein" lautet. Jede Seite hat einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes widerspiegelt. Geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Wenn Sie „Ja"-Anteile kaufen und das Ergebnis als „Ja" aufgelöst wird, zahlt jeder Anteil $1 aus. Wird es als „Nein" aufgelöst, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen, um einen Gewinn zu sichern oder einen Verlust zu begrenzen.

Die aktuelle Wahrscheinlichkeit für „Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?" liegt bei 28% für „Yes". Das bedeutet, die Polymarket-Community glaubt derzeit, dass eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 28% besteht, dass dieses Ereignis eintritt. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit auf Basis tatsächlicher Handelsgeschäfte aktualisiert und liefern ein ständig aktualisiertes Signal dessen, was der Markt erwartet.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Liegt eine föderale oder landesweite Zwischenwahl in den USA innerhalb von 0,01 %?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.