Current numerical weather models, including GFS guidance and regional outputs, indicate Tel Aviv’s minimum temperature on September 6 will likely fall in the 24–25 °C range under partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and moderate humidity that limits radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely divided because small shifts in overnight cloud cover or wind speed can alter the low by 1–2 °C, pushing probabilities toward either the 29 °C-or-higher bin or the 19 °C-or-below bin. September climatology places the typical minimum near 23 °C, so the market-implied odds embed uncertainty around whether conditions will trend slightly warmer or cooler than the seasonal baseline. Updated model runs and official Israel Meteorological Service guidance expected overnight will provide the final inputs before resolution.