**Clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling under a building high-pressure system are the main drivers positioning the overnight minimum temperature in Amsterdam around 10–13°C on August 24, 2026.** Forecasts from multiple models (GFS and others) show calm conditions overnight into the morning, with dew points near 10–11°C limiting further cooling and light northeast winds reducing turbulent mixing. This setup favors efficient heat loss from the surface, consistent with historical late-August climatology where average lows sit near 13°C but can dip lower under clear, dry anticyclonic flow. Recent days featured a modest cooling trend after mid-month warmth, with current surface observations and model guidance aligning on a minimum near 11°C at representative stations such as Schiphol. The closely bunched probabilities around 10–13°C reflect genuine uncertainty in exact model runs, microscale urban effects versus official measurements, and the precise timing of the lowest reading. Stronger model agreement on clear skies and modest winds supports the current trader consensus, while any last-minute increase in cloud cover or wind could shift the outcome toward the higher end of the range.