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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 31. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 31. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 31. August?

Aug. 30

Sep. 6

Aug. 30

Sep. 6

20-39 62%

40-59 17%

<20 14%

60-79 7%

Polymarket
NEU

$13,861 Vol.

20-39 62%

40-59 17%

<20 14%

60-79 7%

Polymarket
NEU

$13,861 Vol.

<20

$682 Vol.

14%

20-39

$11,684 Vol.

62%

40-59

$1,025 Vol.

17%

60-79

$230 Vol.

7%

80+

$240 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical restrictions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the leading outcome for the week of August 31.** War-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal levels, rendering most transits uneconomical and prompting major carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. Recent data show daily commercial crossings averaging roughly 3-7 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, with 7-day aggregates near 5 or below 20% of normal throughput. Iranian statements on August 30 reiterated requirements for coordination or permission, while ongoing sanctions, shadow-fleet activity, and route uncertainty sustain the depressed volumes. These factors aggregate trader capital into strong implied odds for the lowest-to-moderate band, with limited near-term catalysts for normalization.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$13,861
Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Ongoing geopolitical restrictions from the 2026 Iran conflict continue to suppress commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, positioning the 20-39 ship range as the leading outcome for the week of August 31.** War-risk insurance premiums remain around 40 times normal levels, rendering most transits uneconomical and prompting major carriers to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope. Recent data show daily commercial crossings averaging roughly 3-7 vessels against a pre-crisis baseline near 85 per day, with 7-day aggregates near 5 or below 20% of normal throughput. Iranian statements on August 30 reiterated requirements for coordination or permission, while ongoing sanctions, shadow-fleet activity, and route uncertainty sustain the depressed volumes. These factors aggregate trader capital into strong implied odds for the lowest-to-moderate band, with limited near-term catalysts for normalization.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$13,861
Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Verwandte

icon for Werden zwischen dem 24. August und dem 30. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

Werden zwischen dem 24. August und dem 30. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

91%
Ja
icon for Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 31. August zur Normalität zurück?

Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 31. August zur Normalität zurück?

<1%
Ja
icon for Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

98%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 31. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „20-39" mit 62%, gefolgt von „40-59" mit 17%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 62¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 62% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 31. August?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $13.9K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 28, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 31. August?" ist „20-39" mit 62%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 62% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „40-59" mit 17%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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