Recent Houthi strikes, including the lethal August 11 attack on the Tihamah and the August 24 missile hit on the Saudi-linked Amzan tanker, have elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting, capping Bab el-Mandeb volumes despite major carriers resuming Suez services. Container operators such as MSC and Maersk have committed east-west loops through the strait, supporting a modest rebound toward 200–270 weekly transits in recent AIS and Lloyd’s List data, while tanker flows remain suppressed by case-by-case insurance and Saudi tonnage restrictions. These offsetting forces—rising commercial incentives for the shorter route versus persistent security costs and dark-transit behavior—keep the 170–209 ranges tightly contested, with outcomes hinging on whether further incidents materialize before week-end or carriers maintain conditional routing.