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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?

Aug. 23

Aug. 30

Aug. 23

Aug. 30

200-219 27%

180-199 24%

160-179 23%

<160 21%

Polymarket
NEU

200-219 27%

180-199 24%

160-179 23%

<160 21%

Polymarket
NEU

<160

$0 Vol.

21%

160-179

$0 Vol.

23%

180-199

$0 Vol.

24%

200-219

$0 Vol.

27%

220+

$82 Vol.

44%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi shipping have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since mid-July, stabilizing weekly volumes near 260–270 vessels amid broader Red Sea geopolitical risks tied to Iran-related tensions. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market-implied leader at 44%, reflecting partial recovery in commodity vessel movements and limited further escalation through early August. Lower ranges capture downside from potential renewed attacks or diversions, with daily averages of 20–39 vessels underscoring ongoing volatility. Traders price in elevated uncertainty ahead of the August 24 week, as any shift in Houthi enforcement or regional de-escalation could reweight probabilities across the distribution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$82
Enddatum
30. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi-imposed maritime restrictions targeting Saudi shipping have driven a roughly 24% decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits since mid-July, stabilizing weekly volumes near 260–270 vessels amid broader Red Sea geopolitical risks tied to Iran-related tensions. This positions the 220+ outcome as the market-implied leader at 44%, reflecting partial recovery in commodity vessel movements and limited further escalation through early August. Lower ranges capture downside from potential renewed attacks or diversions, with daily averages of 20–39 vessels underscoring ongoing volatility. Traders price in elevated uncertainty ahead of the August 24 week, as any shift in Houthi enforcement or regional de-escalation could reweight probabilities across the distribution.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$82
Enddatum
30. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Verwandte

icon for Werden 200 oder mehr Schiffe zwischen dem 17. August und dem 23. August die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße durchqueren?

Werden 200 oder mehr Schiffe zwischen dem 17. August und dem 23. August die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße durchqueren?

63%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 31. August zwischen 25 und 29 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

Wird es am 31. August zwischen 25 und 29 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

35%
Ja
icon for Werden zwischen dem 24. August und dem 30. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

Werden zwischen dem 24. August und dem 30. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

55%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „220+" mit 44%, gefolgt von „200-219" mit 27%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 21, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 24. August?" ist „220+" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „200-219" mit 27%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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