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Geopolitik·Hormuz

Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 17. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 17. August?
Geopolitik·Hormuz

Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 17. August?

Aug. 16

Aug. 23

Aug. 16

Aug. 23

25-49 44%

<25 32%

50-74 19%

100+ 17%

Polymarket
NEU

25-49 44%

<25 32%

50-74 19%

100+ 17%

Polymarket
NEU

<25

$367 Vol.

32%

25-49

$332 Vol.

57%

50-74

$65 Vol.

19%

75-99

$65 Vol.

19%

100+

$45 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the active naval blockade, in place since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Strait of Hormuz. Recent data show commercial transits stuck at 1–13 vessels per day—roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of ~70–130—reflecting war-risk insurance premiums that have risen sharply, Iranian demands for concessions as of August 8, and fragile Oman-mediated talks. This environment produces strong market-implied odds on the 25–49 and sub-25 weekly buckets, as aggregated capital reflects the low probability of rapid normalization ahead of the August 17 week. Any diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could lift volumes, but persistent enforcement actions and elevated risk premia continue to anchor expectations near multi-month lows.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$874
Enddatum
23. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran tensions and the active naval blockade, in place since late February 2026, remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the Strait of Hormuz. Recent data show commercial transits stuck at 1–13 vessels per day—roughly 90% below the pre-crisis average of ~70–130—reflecting war-risk insurance premiums that have risen sharply, Iranian demands for concessions as of August 8, and fragile Oman-mediated talks. This environment produces strong market-implied odds on the 25–49 and sub-25 weekly buckets, as aggregated capital reflects the low probability of rapid normalization ahead of the August 17 week. Any diplomatic breakthrough or de-escalation could lift volumes, but persistent enforcement actions and elevated risk premia continue to anchor expectations near multi-month lows.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$874
Enddatum
23. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 4:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

Verwandte

icon for Werden zwischen dem 10. August und dem 16. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

Werden zwischen dem 10. August und dem 16. August 25-49 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

77%
Ja
icon for Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 31. August zur Normalität zurück?

Kehrt der Verkehr in der Straße von Hormus bis zum 31. August zur Normalität zurück?

2%
Ja
icon for Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?

91%

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 17. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „25-49" mit 57%, gefolgt von „<25" mit 32%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 57¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 57% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 17. August?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 14, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Schiffe passieren die Straße von Hormus Woche vom 17. August?" ist „25-49" mit 57%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 57% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „<25" mit 32%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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