**Nicolás Maduro leads the market at 82.3%** because the Chavista power structure he built has shown continuity despite his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces during the military intervention in Caracas. Delcy Rodríguez assumed the interim presidency days later under Supreme Tribunal orders and has received explicit U.S. recognition as head of state while cooperating on stabilization, sanctions relief, and economic measures. This arrangement has held through mid-2026, including after major earthquakes in June that tested the government’s response. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González remain in exile, with no free and fair presidential election completed or scheduled that would alter leadership before year-end. Lower probabilities for Rodríguez (8.5%) and others reflect uncertainty over whether the interim setup persists, yields to broader reconciliation, or faces internal or external pressure for change by December 2026.