Recent data show daily transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait rising to 39–41 vessels in late July 2026, the highest levels since December 2023, supported by the absence of Houthi attacks throughout 2026 and a U.S.-Iran ceasefire that has reduced immediate threats. Volumes remain 40–60% below pre-crisis norms, however, as many carriers continue Cape of Good Hope rerouting amid lingering insurance and security concerns. This environment produces closely matched market-implied odds favoring 25–34 ships, with the narrow gap between the 25–29 and 30–34 buckets reflecting uncertainty over whether the late-July rebound sustains into month-end or yields to seasonal trade softness and residual caution. Primary swing factors include any resumption of regional tensions, global container demand trends, and further shifts in freight-rate incentives that could either accelerate or delay normalized routing.