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Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 3. August?

icon for Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 3. August?
Geopolitik·Öl

Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 3. August?

Juli 26

Aug. 2

Aug. 9

Juli 26

Aug. 2

Aug. 9

<180 50%

220+ 49%

180-199 48%

200-219 47%

Polymarket
NEU

<180 50%

220+ 49%

180-199 48%

200-219 47%

Polymarket
NEU

<180

$0 Vol.

50%

180-199

$0 Vol.

48%

200-219

$0 Vol.

47%

220+

$0 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and renewed threats have driven sharp daily volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with commodity vessel counts swinging from a post-2023 peak near 39 to lows of 11, keeping weekly totals uncertain around the 180-220 threshold. Traders price in competing forces: cautious operator rerouting around the Cape amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential further disruptions versus gradual confidence recovery if tensions ease. Macro factors including oil price sensitivity to Red Sea flows, freight rate pressures, and global supply-chain costs reinforce the tight contest between sub-180 and 220-plus outcomes, with resolution hinging on near-term attack frequency and carrier announcements.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
9. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities and renewed threats have driven sharp daily volatility in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with commodity vessel counts swinging from a post-2023 peak near 39 to lows of 11, keeping weekly totals uncertain around the 180-220 threshold. Traders price in competing forces: cautious operator rerouting around the Cape amid elevated war-risk insurance premiums and potential further disruptions versus gradual confidence recovery if tensions ease. Macro factors including oil price sensitivity to Red Sea flows, freight rate pressures, and global supply-chain costs reinforce the tight contest between sub-180 and 220-plus outcomes, with resolution hinging on near-term attack frequency and carrier announcements.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$0
Enddatum
9. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 31, 2026, 6:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 3, 2026, through August 9, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Verwandte

icon for Werden weniger als 200 Schiffe die Bab-el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 27. Juli und dem 2. August passieren?

Werden weniger als 200 Schiffe die Bab-el-Mandeb-Straße zwischen dem 27. Juli und dem 2. August passieren?

69%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 31. August zwischen 30 und 34 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchquerungen der Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

Wird es am 31. August zwischen 30 und 34 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchquerungen der Bab el-Mandeb-Straße geben?

37%
Ja
icon for Wird es am 31. Juli zwischen 31 und 33 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Straße von Bab el-Mandeb geben?

Wird es am 31. Juli zwischen 31 und 33 durchschnittliche tägliche Durchfahrten durch die Straße von Bab el-Mandeb geben?

22%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 3. August?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<180" mit 50%, gefolgt von „220+" mit 49%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 50¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 50% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wie viele Schiffe durchfahren die Bab el-Mandeb-Straße in der Woche vom 3. August?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 31, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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