Skip to main content
icon for Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?
Geopolitik·Straße Von Hormus

Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?

icon for Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?
Geopolitik·Straße Von Hormus

Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?

Sep. 1

Jan. 1, 2027

Sep. 1

Jan. 1, 2027

$37,625 Vol.

31. Dez. 2026
Polymarket

$37,625 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for USA

USA

$7,112 Vol.

21%

icon for Italien

Italien

$16 Vol.

14%

icon for Vereinigtes Königreich

Vereinigtes Königreich

$37 Vol.

11%

icon for Frankreich

Frankreich

$14,000 Vol.

10%

icon for Australien

Australien

$0 Vol.

10%

icon for Niederlande

Niederlande

$16,402 Vol.

9%

icon for Deutschland

Deutschland

$6 Vol.

9%

icon for Griechenland

Griechenland

$52 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate energy market volatility and shipping risk premiums, with U.S. naval facilitation of over 1,200 commercial transits since June supporting limited oil exports amid an active blockade that has held Iranian crude shipments near zero.** Multinational commitments announced in May 2026 by the UK, France, and partners—including HMS Dragon, the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, and European minehunters—aim to secure navigation routes, though later reluctance from Japan, Australia, and others has tempered expectations for a broad coalition. Attacks on vessels in August, including strikes on Kuwaiti and other tankers, have sustained elevated hull and war risk insurance rates while constraining daily transits well below the pre-conflict average of ~138. Upcoming catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress on corridors and FOMC or energy inventory releases that could shift tanker rates and Brent/WTI pricing. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained U.S. presence versus limited additional national deployments by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$37,625
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.**Geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to elevate energy market volatility and shipping risk premiums, with U.S. naval facilitation of over 1,200 commercial transits since June supporting limited oil exports amid an active blockade that has held Iranian crude shipments near zero.** Multinational commitments announced in May 2026 by the UK, France, and partners—including HMS Dragon, the Charles de Gaulle carrier group, and European minehunters—aim to secure navigation routes, though later reluctance from Japan, Australia, and others has tempered expectations for a broad coalition. Attacks on vessels in August, including strikes on Kuwaiti and other tankers, have sustained elevated hull and war risk insurance rates while constraining daily transits well below the pre-conflict average of ~138. Upcoming catalysts include potential U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress on corridors and FOMC or energy inventory releases that could shift tanker rates and Brent/WTI pricing. Trader sentiment reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on sustained U.S. presence versus limited additional national deployments by year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.

Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.

Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$37,625
Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify. For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify. Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice. Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Vereinigten Staaten bis zum 31. August 2026 Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?

Wird die Vereinigten Staaten bis zum 31. August 2026 Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?

1%
Ja
icon for Werden bis zum 31. August 2026 an irgendeinem Tag mindestens 30 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus durchqueren?

Werden bis zum 31. August 2026 an irgendeinem Tag mindestens 30 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus durchqueren?

2%
Ja
icon for Werden bis zum 30. September 2026 an mindestens einem Tag mindestens 10 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

Werden bis zum 30. September 2026 an mindestens einem Tag mindestens 10 Schiffe die Straße von Hormus passieren?

79%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 8 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Griechenland" mit 33%, gefolgt von „USA" mit 21%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 33¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $37.6K generiert, seit der Markt am Aug 26, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 8 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?" ist „Griechenland" mit 33%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „USA" mit 21%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Welche Länder werden bis zum 31. Dezember Kriegsschiffe durch die Straße von Hormus schicken?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.