Recent polling shows Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from the same religious-nationalist voters. RZP completed its independent primary slate in July and has reported no active merger talks with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly pressed for right-wing unity, focusing on a potential Otzma Yehudit-RZP alliance, yet Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud discussions have centered instead on limited options such as reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote agreements rather than a combined list. With final candidate lists due by early September and no merger announcements, traders assign an 84% probability to separate runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
16% Chance
NEU
NEU
7. Sep. 2026
Ja
16% Chance
NEU
NEU
7. Sep. 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polling shows Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from the same religious-nationalist voters. RZP completed its independent primary slate in July and has reported no active merger talks with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly pressed for right-wing unity, focusing on a potential Otzma Yehudit-RZP alliance, yet Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud discussions have centered instead on limited options such as reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote agreements rather than a combined list. With final candidate lists due by early September and no merger announcements, traders assign an 84% probability to separate runs.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volumen
$372Enddatum
7. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polling shows Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from the same religious-nationalist voters. RZP completed its independent primary slate in July and has reported no active merger talks with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly pressed for right-wing unity, focusing on a potential Otzma Yehudit-RZP alliance, yet Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud discussions have centered instead on limited options such as reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote agreements rather than a combined list. With final candidate lists due by early September and no merger announcements, traders assign an 84% probability to separate runs.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Likud and Religious Zionist Party contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volumen
$372Enddatum
7. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 28, 2026, 6:07 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Recent polling shows Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party hovering near or below the 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27, 2026 Knesset vote, with Ofer Winter’s new People of Israel party drawing from the same religious-nationalist voters. RZP completed its independent primary slate in July and has reported no active merger talks with Likud. Prime Minister Netanyahu has publicly pressed for right-wing unity, focusing on a potential Otzma Yehudit-RZP alliance, yet Itamar Ben-Gvir rejected the idea outright. Likud discussions have centered instead on limited options such as reserved slots for Smotrich or surplus-vote agreements rather than a combined list. With final candidate lists due by early September and no merger announcements, traders assign an 84% probability to separate runs.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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