Reza Pahlavi remains in exile since 1979 and has repeatedly stated his readiness to enter Iran as soon as conditions permit, even prior to full regime change, to encourage defections and support a transitional process. As of mid-2026, he has conducted an active international campaign including a European tour, CPAC appearances, and meetings with U.S. officials amid ongoing domestic protests and reported regional tensions. Iranian authorities continue to control entry points with no verified safe passage or domestic infrastructure in place for his return. Key variables through December 31, 2026 include the pace of internal regime fractures, escalation or de-escalation in protests, and any diplomatic shifts that could alter security assessments. Trader consensus reflects these structural barriers while pricing in the possibility of rapid change if liberated areas emerge or official opposition to his entry weakens.