Latest ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a narrow range centered near 24–25°C for Paris maximum temperatures on August 20, with close market probabilities reflecting genuine uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover. A passing Atlantic trough is introducing cooler maritime air and increased low-level moisture, limiting diurnal heating compared to the preceding heatwave period. Historical August climatology shows typical highs near 25°C, but current steering patterns and soil moisture anomalies favor modest suppression. Updated runs from European and global models over the next 24 hours, alongside surface observations, will refine whether weak subsidence or scattered showers tip the outcome toward the lower or upper end of this tight cluster.