**Active southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for August 20, 2026, favoring a daily maximum near 31°C as the market consensus.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms suppress peak heating, aligning with PAGASA’s extended outlook of 26–33°C and recent model guidance showing typical August highs of 30–32°C under high humidity. These monsoon-driven dynamics—warm, moist southwesterly flow with frequent convective activity—historically cap temperatures below seasonal extremes, explaining why 31°C holds over 50% implied probability while 32–33°C retain smaller shares. No major heat anomalies or clearing trends appear in the latest agency updates, keeping lower outcomes (29°C and below) at minimal odds consistent with climatological baselines. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs through August 19 will provide the next key data points for any shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 20. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Manila am 20. August?
31°C 52%
32°C 16%
33°C 14%
30°C 8%
NEU
NEU
20. Aug. 2026
25°C oder niedriger
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
4%
29°C
6%
30°C
8%
31°C
52%
32°C
16%
33°C
14%
34°C
2%
35°C oder höher
1%
31°C 52%
32°C 16%
33°C 14%
30°C 8%
NEU
NEU
20. Aug. 2026
25°C oder niedriger
$296 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$13 Vol.
1%
28°C
$29 Vol.
4%
29°C
$5 Vol.
6%
30°C
$0 Vol.
8%
31°C
$137 Vol.
52%
32°C
$3 Vol.
16%
33°C
$6 Vol.
14%
34°C
$126 Vol.
2%
35°C oder höher
$7 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Active southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for August 20, 2026, favoring a daily maximum near 31°C as the market consensus.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms suppress peak heating, aligning with PAGASA’s extended outlook of 26–33°C and recent model guidance showing typical August highs of 30–32°C under high humidity.
These monsoon-driven dynamics—warm, moist southwesterly flow with frequent convective activity—historically cap temperatures below seasonal extremes, explaining why 31°C holds over 50% implied probability while 32–33°C retain smaller shares. No major heat anomalies or clearing trends appear in the latest agency updates, keeping lower outcomes (29°C and below) at minimal odds consistent with climatological baselines. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs through August 19 will provide the next key data points for any shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$650Enddatum
20. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Active southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for August 20, 2026, favoring a daily maximum near 31°C as the market consensus.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms suppress peak heating, aligning with PAGASA’s extended outlook of 26–33°C and recent model guidance showing typical August highs of 30–32°C under high humidity.
These monsoon-driven dynamics—warm, moist southwesterly flow with frequent convective activity—historically cap temperatures below seasonal extremes, explaining why 31°C holds over 50% implied probability while 32–33°C retain smaller shares. No major heat anomalies or clearing trends appear in the latest agency updates, keeping lower outcomes (29°C and below) at minimal odds consistent with climatological baselines. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs through August 19 will provide the next key data points for any shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$650Enddatum
20. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Active southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila’s weather outlook for August 20, 2026, favoring a daily maximum near 31°C as the market consensus.** Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms suppress peak heating, aligning with PAGASA’s extended outlook of 26–33°C and recent model guidance showing typical August highs of 30–32°C under high humidity. These monsoon-driven dynamics—warm, moist southwesterly flow with frequent convective activity—historically cap temperatures below seasonal extremes, explaining why 31°C holds over 50% implied probability while 32–33°C retain smaller shares. No major heat anomalies or clearing trends appear in the latest agency updates, keeping lower outcomes (29°C and below) at minimal odds consistent with climatological baselines. Updated PAGASA briefings and model runs through August 19 will provide the next key data points for any shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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