Recent short-range model guidance from GFS and regional Italian forecasts supports a predominantly clear, high-pressure pattern over northern Italy on August 31, with light westerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong diurnal heating. This setup positions daytime maxima near 31°C across Milan, consistent with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the secondary 30.5% weighting on 30°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest given the proximity to the event, though slight variations in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any residual morning stratus could shift the peak by 1°C. Official verification will rely on Milan Linate or Malpensa station readings, with final model updates expected overnight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Mailand am 31. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Mailand am 31. August?
31°C 46%
30°C 32%
32°C 10%
29°C 7%
NEU
$10,372 Vol.
NEU
$10,372 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
7%
30°C
32%
31°C
46%
32°C
10%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 46%
30°C 32%
32°C 10%
29°C 7%
NEU
$10,372 Vol.
NEU
$10,372 Vol.
31. Aug. 2026
24°C or below
$1,230 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,148 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$646 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$312 Vol.
1%
29°C
$697 Vol.
7%
30°C
$1,294 Vol.
32%
31°C
$3,638 Vol.
46%
32°C
$842 Vol.
10%
33°C
$196 Vol.
1%
34°C or higher
$123 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from GFS and regional Italian forecasts supports a predominantly clear, high-pressure pattern over northern Italy on August 31, with light westerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong diurnal heating. This setup positions daytime maxima near 31°C across Milan, consistent with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the secondary 30.5% weighting on 30°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest given the proximity to the event, though slight variations in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any residual morning stratus could shift the peak by 1°C. Official verification will rely on Milan Linate or Malpensa station readings, with final model updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$10,372Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model guidance from GFS and regional Italian forecasts supports a predominantly clear, high-pressure pattern over northern Italy on August 31, with light westerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong diurnal heating. This setup positions daytime maxima near 31°C across Milan, consistent with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the secondary 30.5% weighting on 30°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest given the proximity to the event, though slight variations in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any residual morning stratus could shift the peak by 1°C. Official verification will rely on Milan Linate or Malpensa station readings, with final model updates expected overnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$10,372Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 29, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model guidance from GFS and regional Italian forecasts supports a predominantly clear, high-pressure pattern over northern Italy on August 31, with light westerly flow and minimal cloud cover favoring strong diurnal heating. This setup positions daytime maxima near 31°C across Milan, consistent with the market’s leading 44.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the secondary 30.5% weighting on 30°C. Ensemble spreads remain modest given the proximity to the event, though slight variations in boundary-layer moisture or timing of any residual morning stratus could shift the peak by 1°C. Official verification will rely on Milan Linate or Malpensa station readings, with final model updates expected overnight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen