Beijing's August 1 temperature market shows tight clustering around 35–37°C, with 36°C leading at 40.5% implied probability, reflecting modest forecast uncertainty in official model runs. Summer baseline highs near 32–34°C can shift several degrees due to variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification in the capital. Current guidance from meteorological agencies highlights limited model consensus on peak mixing ratios and wind patterns, which directly affect whether observed maxima reach the upper or lower end of the narrow range. Traders appear to weigh recent ensemble spreads and local station data trends when pricing these closely spaced outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Peking am 1. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Peking am 1. August?
36°C 40%
35°C 35%
37°C 17%
38°C or higher 10.3%
$41,429 Vol.
$41,429 Vol.
1. Aug. 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
3%
35°C
35%
36°C
40%
37°C
17%
38°C or higher
10%
36°C 40%
35°C 35%
37°C 17%
38°C or higher 10.3%
$41,429 Vol.
$41,429 Vol.
1. Aug. 2026
28°C or below
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,225 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,008 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,372 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,928 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$5,367 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,554 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,547 Vol.
35%
36°C
$5,446 Vol.
40%
37°C
$2,927 Vol.
17%
38°C or higher
$1,673 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's August 1 temperature market shows tight clustering around 35–37°C, with 36°C leading at 40.5% implied probability, reflecting modest forecast uncertainty in official model runs. Summer baseline highs near 32–34°C can shift several degrees due to variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification in the capital. Current guidance from meteorological agencies highlights limited model consensus on peak mixing ratios and wind patterns, which directly affect whether observed maxima reach the upper or lower end of the narrow range. Traders appear to weigh recent ensemble spreads and local station data trends when pricing these closely spaced outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$41,429Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Beijing's August 1 temperature market shows tight clustering around 35–37°C, with 36°C leading at 40.5% implied probability, reflecting modest forecast uncertainty in official model runs. Summer baseline highs near 32–34°C can shift several degrees due to variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification in the capital. Current guidance from meteorological agencies highlights limited model consensus on peak mixing ratios and wind patterns, which directly affect whether observed maxima reach the upper or lower end of the narrow range. Traders appear to weigh recent ensemble spreads and local station data trends when pricing these closely spaced outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$41,429Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Beijing's August 1 temperature market shows tight clustering around 35–37°C, with 36°C leading at 40.5% implied probability, reflecting modest forecast uncertainty in official model runs. Summer baseline highs near 32–34°C can shift several degrees due to variables such as cloud cover, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification in the capital. Current guidance from meteorological agencies highlights limited model consensus on peak mixing ratios and wind patterns, which directly affect whether observed maxima reach the upper or lower end of the narrow range. Traders appear to weigh recent ensemble spreads and local station data trends when pricing these closely spaced outcomes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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