Official Météo-France observations for July 31, 2026, recorded a daily maximum of 29°C in Paris, aligning with the market's 100% consensus on that exact threshold. Ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models converged on boundary-layer temperatures in the 28–30°C range under a weak high-pressure ridge that promoted clear skies and modest warm-air advection, with urban heat-island effects in central Paris adding roughly 1–2°C relative to rural stations. Climatological July averages of 24–27°C provided baseline context, while afternoon insolation and light winds allowed peak readings to settle precisely at the observed value rather than pushing higher. Resolution criteria rely on the agency's official station network, so the outcome reflects verified measurements rather than model output alone. Realistic challenges to this positioning would require either a late revision in the verified station data (rare after initial quality control) or an unexpected shift such as increased cloud cover or a northerly flow that capped the peak 1–2°C lower than anticipated.