Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has introduced caution into trader assessments of full-year outcomes, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from sources such as the CBO (2.2%), Vanguard (2.3%), and S&P Global (2.1%) clusters near 2.0–2.5%, supporting the tight distribution across the three leading bins. Sticky core inflation near 3% and a stable but softening labor market keep the Fed on hold, limiting monetary tailwinds, while potential productivity gains from capital expenditure provide upside risks. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether investment momentum can sustain above-trend expansion or if trade and price pressures will cap growth closer to 1.5–2.0%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertBIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
BIP-Wachstum im Jahr 2026
2,0–2,5 % 31%
1,5–2,0 % 29.5%
>2,5 % 27%
1,0–1,5 % 9.7%
$58,327 Vol.
$58,327 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
4%
0,5–1,0 %
2%
1,0–1,5 %
10%
1,5–2,0 %
30%
2,0–2,5 %
31%
>2,5 %
27%
2,0–2,5 % 31%
1,5–2,0 % 29.5%
>2,5 % 27%
1,0–1,5 % 9.7%
$58,327 Vol.
$58,327 Vol.
29. Jan. 2027
<0,5 %
$7,479 Vol.
4%
0,5–1,0 %
$17,293 Vol.
2%
1,0–1,5 %
$3,824 Vol.
10%
1,5–2,0 %
$6,632 Vol.
30%
2,0–2,5 %
$7,095 Vol.
31%
>2,5 %
$16,004 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has introduced caution into trader assessments of full-year outcomes, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from sources such as the CBO (2.2%), Vanguard (2.3%), and S&P Global (2.1%) clusters near 2.0–2.5%, supporting the tight distribution across the three leading bins. Sticky core inflation near 3% and a stable but softening labor market keep the Fed on hold, limiting monetary tailwinds, while potential productivity gains from capital expenditure provide upside risks. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether investment momentum can sustain above-trend expansion or if trade and price pressures will cap growth closer to 1.5–2.0%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$58,327Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has introduced caution into trader assessments of full-year outcomes, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from sources such as the CBO (2.2%), Vanguard (2.3%), and S&P Global (2.1%) clusters near 2.0–2.5%, supporting the tight distribution across the three leading bins. Sticky core inflation near 3% and a stable but softening labor market keep the Fed on hold, limiting monetary tailwinds, while potential productivity gains from capital expenditure provide upside risks. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether investment momentum can sustain above-trend expansion or if trade and price pressures will cap growth closer to 1.5–2.0%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$58,327Enddatum
29. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, has introduced caution into trader assessments of full-year outcomes, amid resilient consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset by tariff effects, elevated energy prices, and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from sources such as the CBO (2.2%), Vanguard (2.3%), and S&P Global (2.1%) clusters near 2.0–2.5%, supporting the tight distribution across the three leading bins. Sticky core inflation near 3% and a stable but softening labor market keep the Fed on hold, limiting monetary tailwinds, while potential productivity gains from capital expenditure provide upside risks. The balanced probabilities reflect uncertainty over whether investment momentum can sustain above-trend expansion or if trade and price pressures will cap growth closer to 1.5–2.0%.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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