Recent July consumer price data showing China's annual CPI easing to a six-month low of 0.5 percent, below consensus forecasts, has kept trader expectations centered on subdued August readings amid ongoing weak domestic demand and falling food prices. Core inflation moderated while producer prices also cooled, reflecting soft consumer spending and lower energy costs. The narrow gap between the leading 0.5-0.6 percent and 0.7-0.8 percent brackets reflects uncertainty around monthly base effects, potential lagged stimulus measures, and commodity price movements ahead of the early-September release. Stronger retail sales or producer price spillovers could lift odds for the higher bracket, whereas further demand softness or policy signals would favor the lower range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0.5% - 0.6% 41%
0.7% - 0.8% 38%
0.3% - 0.4% 17.7%
≤0.2% 11%
≤0.2%
21%
0.3% - 0.4%
18%
0.5% - 0.6%
41%
0.7% - 0.8%
38%
0.9%+
10%
0.5% - 0.6% 41%
0.7% - 0.8% 38%
0.3% - 0.4% 17.7%
≤0.2% 11%
≤0.2%
21%
0.3% - 0.4%
18%
0.5% - 0.6%
41%
0.7% - 0.8%
38%
0.9%+
10%
This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 4:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending August 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for August 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in September 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for August 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in August 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July consumer price data showing China's annual CPI easing to a six-month low of 0.5 percent, below consensus forecasts, has kept trader expectations centered on subdued August readings amid ongoing weak domestic demand and falling food prices. Core inflation moderated while producer prices also cooled, reflecting soft consumer spending and lower energy costs. The narrow gap between the leading 0.5-0.6 percent and 0.7-0.8 percent brackets reflects uncertainty around monthly base effects, potential lagged stimulus measures, and commodity price movements ahead of the early-September release. Stronger retail sales or producer price spillovers could lift odds for the higher bracket, whereas further demand softness or policy signals would favor the lower range.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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