Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation is trading with the 5.00-5.49% range as the clear leader at 46.4% implied probability, reflecting the government's July upward revision of its full-year forecast to 5.1% from 4.5% amid sticky price pressures. Recent monthly readings show July annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, remaining above the 3% central bank target plus tolerance band, with moderation in food, transport, and fuel components offsetting earlier spikes tied to energy supply disruptions. Market consensus from the Focus survey has hovered near 4.3% but faces upward pressure from a heated labor market and positive output gap, while long-term projections from models like those at Trading Economics point to gradual cooling toward 3.7% only in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming IBGE releases and Copom policy signals that could shift the path for the remaining 2026 prints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert5,00-5,49 % 46.4%
4,50–4,99 % 22.3%
5,50–5,99 % 14.3%
4,00-4,49 % 7.9%
$95,757 Vol.
$95,757 Vol.
11. Jan. 2027
<3,00 %
<1%
3,00-3,49 %
1%
3,50-3,99 %
3%
4,00-4,49 %
8%
4,50–4,99 %
22%
5,00-5,49 %
46%
5,50–5,99 %
14%
6,00-6,49 %
1%
6,50-6,99 %
<1%
7,00 %+
3%
5,00-5,49 % 46.4%
4,50–4,99 % 22.3%
5,50–5,99 % 14.3%
4,00-4,49 % 7.9%
$95,757 Vol.
$95,757 Vol.
11. Jan. 2027
<3,00 %
$5,727 Vol.
<1%
3,00-3,49 %
$5,787 Vol.
1%
3,50-3,99 %
$13,189 Vol.
3%
4,00-4,49 %
$14,048 Vol.
8%
4,50–4,99 %
$15,364 Vol.
22%
5,00-5,49 %
$14,212 Vol.
46%
5,50–5,99 %
$9,462 Vol.
14%
6,00-6,49 %
$6,485 Vol.
1%
6,50-6,99 %
$6,683 Vol.
<1%
7,00 %+
$4,799 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation is trading with the 5.00-5.49% range as the clear leader at 46.4% implied probability, reflecting the government's July upward revision of its full-year forecast to 5.1% from 4.5% amid sticky price pressures. Recent monthly readings show July annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, remaining above the 3% central bank target plus tolerance band, with moderation in food, transport, and fuel components offsetting earlier spikes tied to energy supply disruptions. Market consensus from the Focus survey has hovered near 4.3% but faces upward pressure from a heated labor market and positive output gap, while long-term projections from models like those at Trading Economics point to gradual cooling toward 3.7% only in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming IBGE releases and Copom policy signals that could shift the path for the remaining 2026 prints.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Markt eröffnet: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volumen
$95,757Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's 2026 IPCA inflation is trading with the 5.00-5.49% range as the clear leader at 46.4% implied probability, reflecting the government's July upward revision of its full-year forecast to 5.1% from 4.5% amid sticky price pressures. Recent monthly readings show July annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, remaining above the 3% central bank target plus tolerance band, with moderation in food, transport, and fuel components offsetting earlier spikes tied to energy supply disruptions. Market consensus from the Focus survey has hovered near 4.3% but faces upward pressure from a heated labor market and positive output gap, while long-term projections from models like those at Trading Economics point to gradual cooling toward 3.7% only in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming IBGE releases and Copom policy signals that could shift the path for the remaining 2026 prints.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$95,757Enddatum
12. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Brazil's 2026 IPCA inflation is trading with the 5.00-5.49% range as the clear leader at 46.4% implied probability, reflecting the government's July upward revision of its full-year forecast to 5.1% from 4.5% amid sticky price pressures. Recent monthly readings show July annual inflation easing to 4.44% from 4.64% in June, remaining above the 3% central bank target plus tolerance band, with moderation in food, transport, and fuel components offsetting earlier spikes tied to energy supply disruptions. Market consensus from the Focus survey has hovered near 4.3% but faces upward pressure from a heated labor market and positive output gap, while long-term projections from models like those at Trading Economics point to gradual cooling toward 3.7% only in 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming IBGE releases and Copom policy signals that could shift the path for the remaining 2026 prints.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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